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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/22/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I hear ya BD. I've been burned once too many times to say this is anything but mo mo in the osx. I wouldn't be surprised to see the osx break through the "48" bottom in the future. I am looking at puts when this rally fades. For those who don't remember, SLB missed by 1 penny and the osx tanked big time. Oil was solidly north of $15 at the time. Now SLB says earnings are flat an SLB goes up? These stocks are not going up on improving fundamentals.

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/22/1998 6:10:00 PM
From: Bwe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Big, You do a great service with your newsletter and I've learned much about the industry from a fundamental perspective from your writings. As a point & figure chartist, my guiding light is the supply/demand relationship as it evidences itself on my p&f charts. I never argue with my charts, I just try to understand what they're telling me. From a group perspective, the Oil Service sector is fast approaching Bull Confirmed status. The Oil Service sector Bullish % moved up to 28% from 14%. This move puts the goup in Bull Alert status once again. A move to 36% would put the group in Bull Confirmed status and would put the group in great field position for buying stocks long in the sector. Overbought levels are over 70%, and a move from 36% to over 70% would coincide with a dramatic rise in the prices of these stocks. Bullish %'s are a simple count of the number of stocks in a group that are on p&f buy signals out of the total stocks in a particular sector. The 28% figure simply shows that off all stocks in the sector, 28% of them are on p&f buy signals. Only new signals are counted going forward. Stocks that give confirming buy signals are no longer counted. The Oil Group remained unchanged this week at 24%. Yesterday's action saw 3.960% of stocks in the Oil Service sector give new p&f buy signals and that now puts the actual Bullish % at 32.56. That number will surely rise after today's bullish action. A Bull Confirmed sector provides very fertile ground for making commitments to stocks on the long side. It is very dangerous to short stocks when a sector is Bull confirmed. The main coach for p&f chartist's, the NYSE Bullish %, is also Bull Confirmed, and is providing an excellent backdrop for investors. I understand your stated position that you would not put any new money into the sector at these prices unless it was with a tight stop for a trade. The outlook, however, according to p&f charting methodology, suggests that these stocks have substantial room to go on the upside from these levels. I'll post the updated Bullish % for the Oil Service sector before the open tomorrow morning. JMHO, Bruce

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/22/1998 7:12:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog: I think what is moving these stocks is the same thing that is moving the overall market -- the conviction (rational or otherwise) that aggressive easing by the Fed will solve the global deflationary dilemma by the end of next year. The chain of causation runs as follows -- If Asia recovers, oil prices will recover, and if oil prices recover, then so will day rates. But with this rally based entirely on expectations of improvement a year hence, the reactions are apt to be quite severe. One cannot wait for obvious improvement in the fundamentals to buy these stocks. But by the same token it is way too early to chase strong rallies. Much better to wait for the inevitable sharp dips.

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/22/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

HMAR 1999 EPS lowered and my opinion: I am away for a week and come back to an OSX rally. I am not amused that I missed it but I will not get sucked in again. Dog, I think you are right. Fundamentals are not changing in oil, and asia and other economies are at risk, so I do not think this rally is due to change in outlook there. Here is another halving of EPS estimate for 1999: HMAR: Major Broker decreased estimate for fiscal year ending 12/99 from $1.75 to $0.99 on 10/16/98. BTW, the consensus 1999 EPS estimate was 2.84 in April of this year -- 6 months ago. I am sick of having my results depend on OPEC, and world wide economic activity. There are lower risk bets around. Good luck to all. Enjoy the moment (um).

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/23/1998 4:09:00 AM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I sit here and wonder why people think these stocks are so under valued. Big, I think the perception of undervalued comes from the current published earnings estimates for this sector and that many OS stocks are still trading at a large discount to their forward growth rates while the S&P 500 is trading at a huge premium to their growth rates. I don't think the street really understands how declining day rates will require those future estimates to be ratcheted down sharply. Then there are the momentum players who probably think a dayrate is a all-day ticket at Disney World. Lets also not forget that we have returned to a very frothy market that is having temporary amnesia about all the problems in the world. John

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/23/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog, Or anyone else. I have been getting quotes for current and future oil prices from these two sites. It is not working anymore. Do you know why? cbs.marketwatch.com and for preopening or after close: cbs.marketwatch.com They haven't given current quotes in two or three days. Also, BTW did anyone catch the downgrade of Oil drillers on CNBC this morning? DO and others by I believe Morgan Stanley. TIA DavidG

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/23/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: Merritt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Big: On 10-21-98 SDC reported revenues up 13.7%, even thought they had lower rig utilization in Venezuela and Indonesia...the reason for the increased revenues was given as having a higher day rate for their rigs during the quarter. Doesn't seem to make sense, but that's what they said. Any thoughts? TIA, Merritt PS: I've really enjoyed getting your newsletter.

To: Big Dog who wrote (31028)	10/23/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog, all very good points. It's also worth noting that despite the good Q3 numbers for RIG, they did just agree to a new semi-sub contract at a lower day rate (starting early next year). I do have to salute RIG, however, since it is nice to see an OS stock finally "managing" expectations. I would think that a company which already knows its topline number for the quarter (as well as most of its costs) would be able to give a pretty accurate number to analysts. The fact that they led analysts so much lower than the actual number bodes well for future upside surprises. One question for you, BD: why VRC? is it because they have been beaten down so low? or is there something you see in the fundamentals? I'm a bit concerned we may see a continued drop in their backlog moving forward.