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Technology Stocks : J.D. Edwards debut! (JDEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (180)	10/23/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 583

MSFT supporting a generation. Well the previous generation was supported by GE and KO and G. They proved they weren't impervious during the last downturn. The front page of the business section of the local paper had a number of pictures and stories about folks whose retirements, planned or current, were damaged during the latest rout. The only thing Wall Street cares about is itself. Don't expect that because we all have shares of MSFT or DELL that these companies are somehow sacred. I had DELL puts recently when it dove to $40. It can go there again just as easily as it might climb to $70. The volatility makes lots of folks money and once it starts it feeds on itself. The day Dell preannounces in 1999 you won't believe the action on it and the NASDAQ. I do see a substantial crash next year and 6 months of fear and loathing. After the millennial dust settles in March of 2000 I see a resumption of the bull that has the potential to make the previous one seem small. But for it to happen at all the world economies have to restabilize quickly after Y2K. Unfortunately Y2K is happening at a time when there is incredible instability that has little or nothing to do with Y2K itself that spurred an early start to the recession and bear market. I originally anticipated it starting around Q2 1999. Russia, Asia and the hedges escalated the schedule quite a bit. "Don't worry, the bear market will survive this current rally." Great quote. For some contrarian views check out www.stocksite.com and read Fleckenstein. I see Greenspan cutting rates 1/2 point for XMAS to try and provoke another Q1 rally. For the first time in 4 years, my retirement money won't be going straight into equities, regardless of the feds action. All Greenspan has done is prevent the inevitable. Now with even guys like Cramer singing the bull song, they sure as hell aren't unravelling positions, they are rebuilding them. Dumb. Betting against Dell is suicidal. So is putting all your retirement money there, or MSFT, or techs in general. About 12 months ago ERP was the hot place to be too. Look at it. It is just a precursor of the things to come to the tech stock marketplace prior to 1/1/2000. Lastly I sat in my kids elementary technology center last night in a room filled with 30 powerful Macs. The teacher was able to run them all from a central console with accompanying big screen tv. It looked a lot more friendly to little kids than anything Gates/Dell/Intel have ever produced. This generation, our kids, will be buying a lot of their own hardware someday. Remember, this is how IBM seeded its 1970s market with buyers during the 1960s, by donating large amounts of hardware to colleges. Well it starts a little earlier now than it did in the 1960s. My youngest will be using wordprocessors and graphics programs in kindergarten. Scary as hell to a Luddite! ttf