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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (10803)	10/22/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 67261

the political life Predicting the impeachment scenario By Dick Morris Hill News hillnews.com Here's how I see the impeachment issue shaping up. Step One: The Fall Elections There will be big GOP gains in both the House and the Senate. The recent uptick in President Clinton's ratings will fade as he and the First Lady become more political as Election Day looms. The normal sixth-year curse plus the events of this summer and fall will bring the Republicans to 60 seats in the Senate and leave them with a gain of 30 or 40 in the House. This will start tongues wagging that Clinton is on the ropes. But don't buy it. He's not. Step Two: The Next Starr Report After Election Day, Starr will send Congress his new information on the five remaining scandals on which he is focusing — Filegate, Travelgate, the Rose law firm's representation of the Madison Guaranty, the misuse of Tripp's personnel file and the intimidation of Kathleen Willey. There will also likely be post-election indictments of top Clinton officials. The new information will stir the public's indignation at the tactics of the White House secret police and will bring fresh passion to impeachment. But nobody will be able to lay their revolting behavior directly at the Oval Office door, so the information will not materially strengthen the impeachment case. Step Three: Impeachment Hearings With the polls still showing a majority opposed to impeachment, the Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee will try to stir public wrath through two months of hearings. These hearings will generate more noise than light and will not tip the scales of public opinion much one way or the other. Step Four: Impeachment along a party line vote The House Republicans won't be able to help themselves. With a big margin after the fall elections, they will vote to impeach along party lines. But the public will oppose impeachment and will react very badly to the House vote. Step Five: The Senate Vote Count Stung by voter anger over the impeachment vote, Senate Republicans will find it almost impossible to get Democratic support in the Senate. They will get Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.), who hates Clinton anyway, but not many more. No other moderate Democrat will be willing to back removal unless there is a clear consensus in the polls and in the caucus. Lacking that, the Democrats will not splinter and the GOP will come up short. Step Six: The Deal Realizing that they can't get two-thirds, the GOP will go shopping for a deal. Clinton will have to pay a major fine, likely be denied his pension, face censure, but will remain in office, battered and bleeding. Step Seven: The Recovery As always, Clinton will turn it around by being a good president in time to help Vice President Al Gore recoup the damage and win in 2000. You heard it here first. - Dick Morris is a former political consultant to President Clinton, Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and other political f