To: matt fahy who wrote (23131 ) 10/22/1998 10:45:00 PM From: joe Respond to of 45548
Matt, >>Are you really taking profits on gap-up tomorrow?<< Take a look at this, 3 out of 5 days are gaps in the first hour or so:quote.yahoo.com I think we're do for a gap up. I see 3 down gaps, but volume has been increasing. I felt like the stock wanted to run some more this afternoon, and somebody stopped it...maybe accumulation by MMs. Also, there was some rumor that PC sales were going bad. 2nd time this rumor has been started. Somebody's trying to test the downside of the market and it's holding up well. Haven't read the details but GTW did well. Also, I keep reminding myself that the big money hasn't even started getting in that much, yet. They are going to, as long as they view the rate-cut as a positive. Old time money-manager rule #1, good times start with a sequence of rate cuts. The economic power of it is a tremendous force. So, either we are going more or less straight to 36, 38, whatever. OR, somehow somebody is going to shake up the market for one or two more BIG drops so the big $$ guys can get in. I read yesterday, where one guy runs a $180Billion Fund. That's a lot of $$. He could bail out Russia 10 times and still have spare change. So, I figure somehow, these guys can make the market curve one way or another for just enough time to get a lot of their huge pile of $$ in front of most others. I think these are the guys that can control the market if anybody can - not long term, but short term wise. Anyways, I'm not sure what to think, but I'm trying to be flexible and be able to go either way. Definitely, the trend is UPPPP, so I'll err on the side of holding my shares if I'm not sure what to do. >>short term channel still rising? << yeah, no break outs (as far as going lower). We're still on trend up. Wayne said the channel is widening. I could see that. I think that means we might see some volatility on the way up. Maybe very large highs, and sudden 2-3 pt. drops. I'll have to ask him about this. >>The last two days have been around 9 million vs. avg. 7.9 million. What do you think?<< I notice. My guess is it's still the "early new money" and traders. We're still in a traders environment. BIG TIME MONEY is still not in, IMO. We will see them at 38+. Also, we may have to go through some volatility, since my feeling is that BIG TIME MONEY feels they still have time to move. All the world's problems haven't been solved yet. Lots of whacko derivatives are still unwinding. The US $ and interest rates have not stabilized and Uncle Al will surely keep us guessing some more, even though we know he's on our side (I put 60-70% of my confidence in the market just on those rate-cuts). >>The last couple days there have been alot of sellers I believe and it has not exhausted the buyers yet.<< Good point. We weeded out some more weak hands a few days ago with that big drop. We may constantly need that cleaning out for a while. So, as we move on up, I am going to see if I can do a better job at trading this guy. I feel more confident about it, because now I feel the trend is up. Enough theorizing for now...let me know what you think. joe