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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (32233)	10/22/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: Well, I had read it. I guess I just wanted to know if you had moved to a firmer position. As "potentially” a bull was where I was! Thanks for the input! However, after my request to you, I went back and took a thorough look at my indicators. I have not been paying enough attention to my old standby indicators, as I have been working with my new one. I am amazed at what they may be indicating...yikes! My rational mind is struggling with "how the hell can we go up from here"? How the hell can PEs go up from here with AOL at 356, EK at 111, GE at 33, DELL at 71, CSCO at 70, MSFT at 66 etc. How much higher can we go? Heck, I guess the Market is going to re-inflate the bubble, except with even more helium...yikes! Yes, my indicators are beginning to look like they will be giving bullish signals! One major indice per my indicators has received a bullish signal on 10/20 (and I did not even notice it), but I need additional indices to receive the same signal for confirmation. I will do further analysis this weekend. I still expect a pullback, but longer-term signals are beginning to indicate a bullish scenario! The Market is going to have to make a major drop to turn them! A pull back will not be enough! I just can not believe it! BWDIK Regards, LG

To: William H Huebl who wrote (32233)	10/23/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Haven't posted to the BK thread for a while. I smell something funny in the air.... Japan's continued banking troubles, BUBA not touching rates.... biz.yahoo.com also: Top News Fri, 23 Oct 1998, 12:04am EDT 10/22 Dollar Rises Against Yen for 4th Day on Weakness in Japan's Economy Dollar Rises vs Yen for 4th Day on Weakness in Japan's Economy Tokyo, Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the yen for a fourth day amid doubts Japan will quickly strengthen the financial system and climb out of its worst recession in 50 years anytime soon. Further signaling weakness, Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd. applied for a government takeover in the country's first bank nationalization since World War II. The takeover comes as Japan launches a 60 trillion yen ($510 billion) bank bailout package in a bid to encourage more lending to companies and spur economic recovery. ''The LTCB move was widely expected, and this won't quickly resolve the credit crunch issue,'' said Takeshi Imamichi, a foreign exchange manager at Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd. ''I expect the dollar to be on a firm footing, trading above 117 yen, because Japanese are likely to buy it for overseas investment.'' The dollar was quoted at 118.30 yen, up from 117.44 yen in late New York trading yesterday. It was quoted at 1.6394 marks, up from 1.6373 marks in New York. The U.S. currency yesterday reached a one-week high of 118.86 yen, amid signs Japan's worst recession in half a century is deepening. The Economic Planning Agency said yesterday Japanese consumers were the most pessimistic they've ever been about the near-term economic outlook. Need Kickstart ''They need a kickstart to the economy and still they haven't gotten that,'' said Ron Palumbo, a currency salesman at Mellon Bank in Boston. ''They haven't gotten things moving. Fundamentally, dollar-yen should still be in the 150-160 yen area.'' The Japanese government forecast the economy will contract 1.8 percent in the year ending March 31. So the Bank of Japan isn't likely to raise the discount rate, at which it lends money overnight to banks, from a record low of 0.5 percent anytime soon. That prompts Japanese to invest abroad for higher returns, especially after the dollar has become cheaper after falling more than 20 percent from an eight-year high of 147.66 yen on Aug. 11. Japanese individuals consider the current dollar level ''a bargain'' and ''keep buying dollars to invest'' in dollar- denominated money market funds, said Katsumi Ueno, deputy general manager of the retail section at Nikko Securities Co. Yasuji Yamanaka, a foreign exchange manager at Nikko Trust and Banking Co., also said there has recently been ''constant'' yen-selling by Japanese mutual funds investing abroad. Trust banks manage such funds. Yamanaka added that he doesn't expect the dollar to top 120 yen anytime soon because Japanese exporters will sell dollars for yen to bring profits home. Bank Package The yen was hurt also because Japanese banks are saddled with problem loans of at least 77 trillion yen, undermining the economy with their reluctance to lend to companies. That's why the parliament last week approved the 60 trillion yen package in an effort to ease tight credit. Of the package, 25 trillion yen is set aside to recapitalize solvent banks with public money, 18 trillion yen to pay for government takeovers of failed financial institutions and 17 trillion yen to protect depositors in the event of bank failures. IBJ broke the impasse late Tuesday, announcing it will apply for funds to bolster its capital. Tokai Bank Ltd. and Daiwa Bank Ltd. said they are interested in lining up for capital injection, while Fuji Bank Ltd., Sakura Bank Ltd., Sanwa bank Ltd. and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. are ''considering'' applying. In Germany, the Bundesbank yesterday left the benchmark securities repurchase rate unchanged at 3.3 percent during the central bank's monetary policy meeting. In other trading, the dollar was quoted at 1.3412 Swiss francs, up from 1.3405 francs in late New York trading yesterday. The British pound was quoted at $1.6943, down from $1.6958 in New York. The mark was quoted at 72.01 yen, up from 71.84 yen in New York.