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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Bower who wrote (2475)	10/23/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: Tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Ron, It is interesting. Is it not? The dynamics of it all. History, geography, economics, finance, sociology, all the variables and precious few constants that make and move markets. The variety of knowledge one attempts while in pursuit of some sort of intermediate global fait accompli. <g> 1. What should the US be doing about Russia? Something startling supposedly transpired at the Ukraine meeting a few weeks ago. It was said to have "frightened" Western diplomats. Just what it was, I do not know. I'm certain the Washington think tanks are burning the midnight oil, developing contingencies. What I do know is that the billions of dollars we've dumped into the bottomless pit that is the IMF could have purchased redundant, multi-platform, anti-ballistic missile systems for this country. I worry about what sort of mess these international financiers are getting us into. Also, I don't much care for a Frenchmen, or any other foreign national, determining our global image. And that's exactly what has happened. Where, for instance, can you see foreign media criticizing the IMF without mentioning the United States? 2. Is a strong or weak $US necessary for improvement in the global economy? Trending strength in the USD is a pressure the current situation can do without. I am not unaware, however, of the "give a little, get a little" coercion game that appears to be taking place between U.S. policy-makers and Japan. I'm not an advocate of a strong USD policy. As a currency feature, yes. As a policy feature, no. It's a dangerous fixation. 3. Is a strong Japan to be the cure to the 'crisis'? A remedy for what began the crisis is the solution for what will ultimately end it. 4. Tom -Why do you say to watch Germany? Don't see it the relationship to the US economy. Regardless of what troubles their banks have encountered recently, I have a great deal of respect for German talent. I don't have to like all its applications, but I do never-the-less regard it well. They have their own ideas about what economic policies are correct -- always founded, of course, in what is best for Germany. And any implementation of what they see as best for Germany may not always benefit others. Though the conditions of the U.S. and German economies have little modern intermediate or long-term correlation, our currencies are elements in the constructs of global national and industrial debt. So, in that aspect, there is a significant inter-relationship. The Bundesbank has on occasion seen fit to direct their DM in a manner which destabilizes the USD. However, the wealth and strength of the U.S. economy, and the counter-options such strength provides, has always been able to absorb the effect. I am not so sure that the strong-dollar policy, that I see becoming a veritable one-trick pony, will always bear-up under German, or Franco-Prussian, policy machinations. Too, though the condition of the German economy suffers from all that reunification brought, I don't feel they or anyone else is capable of better progress. Germany intends to remain a major global trustee and entrench German welfare in current and future EEU economic and political planning. The consequences make them a force worth observing. All, IMveryHO, of course. A side note: I've had occasion to work with the Germans, professionally. Many have. But this was very critical work. The type where a mistake could well mean catastrophe. I never had to reiterate an instruction. And, though never leaving a situation entirely to that chance, I could always depend on the fact that they knew what the hell they were doing. ;)