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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25648)	10/23/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Are you in any banks or S&Ls? Both sectors are bull alert <30%. Nope, I like the violatility of the Semi-Equip. makers. Look at the price violatility (swings) fo the Equip. verse banks and almost any other sector from the 30 to the 70 percentile and the price swings. If a person buys at the approx. lows and sells at the approx. highs he/she can make tremendous dollars. That is what I am refering when I state, What is the downside risk vrs the upside gain and is the reason I purchased AMAT at $26.50. A $8.00 gain in two weeks on borrowed $$ is not a bad gain. I did not expect such a rapid movement up these last two-three weeks from $21.50 to $34 31/32 today. Today we blew away the bear resistance line at $32, equalled a double top at $34 and are within 1/32 of breaking another double top at $34 when we hit $35. Gottfried, refer again to your probabilities in Tom Dorsey book when breaking the double tops. Right now, projection wise, using DW method we have a potential of $58. Again, at $54 William O'neil's method, "cup and handle" comes into play. Then, if I recall correctly, Tito, has stated that when AMAT hits $70 it has the tendency to run up to $100. I am happy with AMAT performance todate but expect a pull back. But, I expected the pull back at $32, the bull resistance line. From past experience we could possibly have an little pull back of $6 before resuming up again. Just check your DW charts what happened in 1996 when Dec., Jan, Feb, Mar., April, May thru Aug came on. Getting into AMAT in the around $28-30 still leaves a tremendous gain when you consider a potential of $100. Again, we have to consider the downside risk vrs the upside gain. Just my opinions. Paul V.