To: long-gone who wrote (22181 ) 10/23/1998 8:30:00 AM From: lorne Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116759
China's Economy Said Like a Forced-Fed Duck 10/23/98,@2:26am Taiwan time updated Canberra, Oct. 22 (CNA) Mainland China's economy has been compared to a forced-fed duck as Chinese and Western economists challenge the rosy official statistics Beijing has projected, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. Government spending and increased lending to state-owned enterprises could only further damage a debt-ridden banking system which is already technically insolvent, the report said. This in turn could increase the risk of a financial crash in China. Despite this threat, a spokesman for the State Statistical Bureau said the mainland's economy had picked up speed in the third quarter to reach 7.6 percent and now had the momentum to reach the official target of 8 percent for the full year. However, some economists point to conflicting figures and flaws in the method of calculating output and question the likelihood that China can achieve the 8 percent growth target authorities have forecast to avert an economic crisis. "I think it is utterly impossible. Some foreign experts think China's economic growth is at most 3 percent, but I don't think that is correct either. China's economy is like a forced-fed duck," economic commentator Peng Ming was quoted as saying. He added, "It's bloated. The real rate of growth is negative." Peng and other economists point to misleading growth figures that include huge stockpiles of unsalable goods, mountainous bad debt in banks that should be written off, poorly planned public works and empty commercial and residential developments. Industrial output had grown 8 percent in the first three quarters of this year, but electricity generated rose only 2 percent. Experts questioned the validity of Chinese growth figures because industry is reliant on electricity. Consumer spending jumped 6.3 percent in the first nine months compared with the same period last year, but retail prices fell 2.5 percent, the daily reported. Economists believe officials and regional leaders in China have submitted bogus figures just to match the target set by Premier Zhu Rongji, who wants the growth rate to create more jobs and absorb workers from collapsing state-owned industries, the paper said.