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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (2850)	10/26/1998 7:35:00 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37387

Dear Bosco, after reading some articles on disinflation or even deflation, I strongly think we will see another cut in the US, since real interest rates are actually sky-high (after You subtract inflation). Thjs WILL happen in November. Last rate cut for the time being IMHO unless we get into a real recession. Uncle AL is really a smart guy. Fighting where he's needed.. In Europe, I don't think there will be cuts in the EURO-zone before the Eurocurrency will be formed, but I think that the UK will cut rates several times ahead. However after the EURO is formed, I think they will drop rates. Since Europe is now governed 80% by social-democrat parties, this puts pressures on the business sector here. It also is a thorn in the meat against European central bank independence. Expect taxes to even increase here or at least deregulation not to happen anytime soon - aprart from special situations like Nederlands and the UK. Maybe more and more people might leave continental Europe for the UK, Netherlands (which spiritually is more Anglo-Saxon than the rest on the continent) and of course the US. Regarding Your midterm elections my predictions are for the GOP to pick up net +3 in the senate and 15-20 in the house. Important for the future are also states where one party has complete control over state legislatures and the governor. In California the Democrats should pick up the governor. OTOH many other legislatures + governors are nowadays completely controlled by the GOP. For the upcoming redisdricting process, I read an analysis which argues for overall net gains of +25 for the GOP because of redistricting possibilities. So far, everybody is now gearing towards the post Clinton time. The race for WH2000 has already commenced. If TX governor Bush gets the GOP nod, he also could provide his party a more modern profile that's more in line with the non RR-electorate. I also did an analysis of a post-bankrupt situation: GUCO - the Grand Union company. They were recapitalized but I doubt they can be really profitable this year. I ran their data thru my meatgrinder and found some interesting data. If You consider PUSH (Publix) and SWY (Safeway) as one of the most succesful business model in the grocery industry, I tried to compare average sales per normalized (full time) employee. Found out that GUCO got 0,22m $ while PUSH got 0,19 and SWY got 0,25. This means that productivity is ok. Only margins still are not. They hired an IT-wiz-kid. I'm not investing into GUCO at this time but I'm eagerly waiting for this company do get out their next 10Q. My prediction is a loss of 0,60 for the next 2 quarters. best regards CROSSY