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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7100)	10/23/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 44573

Thinking about it in hindsight I imagine if it were simple enough it might work. Another thought that crossed my mind is that I have a Neural mindset. Perhaps a Mechanical system could just be bad enough to work. I've read a lot of commentary however, that stipulates one could have the worst system in the world and, traded with proper money management it could still make money. If one accepts this, then it all comes back to the main theme. It does not matter what the trade is as long as one watches the nickels. Getting back to the concept of reverse trading, though, perhaps for many it is truly psychological as Schwager states. For me, perhaps it's my engineering background. I just won't believe such a system can be relied on. To each his own.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7100)	10/23/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

I just ran a system that I know is faulty on the Daily SP8Z. It comes up with 3 winners, 9 losers. a 25% W/L rate. The average gain was 53.7 points and loss was 31.8. The total is negative 124.60. The system is long from 1064. It has a stop currently at 1031.60 So in theory, if we reverse the current trade we would be short from 1064.00. Because the system is designed to have a stop on the downside I cannot determine what the stop should be on the upside. Theoretically, there is none because the signal has to be traded in reverse. So, losses may be considered to be unlimited. If I remember I will tell you when the signal reverts to short and we can tally our net change, then establish a long signal. These signals generate about every three weeks on average so by the time this contracts expires we should have perhaps two more "trades". EDIT Obviously, Maximum Profit is limited to 32.40 points. The Entry minus the current Stop.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7100)	10/23/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: manohar kanuri	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

>>>As you know, one should never trade a system that does not have a sound conceptual frame-work -- and reverse trading a system that does not work certainly fits the bill of something that might be conceptually unsound.>>> The conceptual issue here might be with "a system that doesn't work." The system works - just not the way you expected it to. Serendipity? The only question is whether the "type" of failure is consistent, and is the failure rate the same as your required "success" rate. mano

To: Tom Trader who wrote (7100)	10/23/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Tom, Just posted this on TSO. I know it sounds strange. >>>> INDEX UPDATE --------------------- I just checked my short-term technicals and very surprisingly, the DOW is already in the mid-range at 53, which is smack in the middle. I realise that many are saying that we have had 7 up days in a row. From my system it is actually that today is the 3 down day, keep in mind that the highs were at 8650. As I always say, when the short-term technicals are in the middle, it is then a flip of the coin for the direction from here. In other words, Monday could pop to the upside or continue down. The NAZ is OVERBOUGHT so that may minimize any rise in the DOW. I would be cautious in playing any new PUTs today. Im not saying that the market will take off strong from here, but that we could see a little more upside, from here,before the market pullsback stronger. Another way to put it is that we could retest the 8650 market again on the DOW before the bigger pullback. It actually caught me by surprise that my short-term technicals are already in the mid-range. Please understand that my anlysis is more based on time than price moves. Seeya