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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (3686)	10/23/1998 11:30:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

You don't think Alan GreenSpam and Bob Rubin will "save" the market from the bear?

To: Rarebird who wrote (3686)	10/23/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Rarebird, I would like to agree with you. However, I think there is more afoot than the public realizes. First off, we all know that the Federal Reserve manipulated the market when it announced the last rate cut 45 minutes from closing on the day before options expiration. This was blatant manipulation in the best tradition of the Bank of Japan. Second, I do not believe the hedge fund issue has been resolved. Barron's reported that most hedge fund investors must wait until the end of the year to redeem, as opposed to normal mutual funds. This illiquidity, combined with the current aversion to risk will likely result in a HUGE outflow of capital from hedge funds. However, capital outflows will result in further margin exposure to these funds and the banks that "back" them. This will require them to unwind their positions much sooner than expected, with drastic effects on the market. Third, the money center banks are in deep doo-doo and the Fed knows this. Although the Fed denied that the LTCM bailout involved public monies, what they didn't say was that the Fed WAS willing and able to support the creditor banks through lower rates on the discount window, hence the sudden rate cut. Finally, in order to preserve continued confidence in the banking system, gold must be kept below the psychological barrier of $300/ounce, even if it means selling reserves held by central banks. I expect continued pressure on Gold, minus another unforseen and sudden "event driven panic". However, the time will eventually come for Gold in 1999, when all of the financial "seals" burst and floodwaters of deflation burst forth. I welcome comment and responses to my perspective. Regards, Ron

To: Rarebird who wrote (3686)	10/23/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 5676

Rare, your 100% on the money in my book - bwdik. 68 and 63.5 are my levels also, this correction may last a little longer than I suspected. The technicals were extremely overbought (almost NO put buying on the XAU at the peak) at 87 and I think we need to consolidate for some time to work off that excess. Though I think the time will be more compressed, I would compare this period to the February/March consolidation period. On March 20th the thing shot straight up. bb