To: MGV who wrote (9125 ) 10/23/1998 1:25:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Respond to of 22640
Brazil's Cardoso eyes key Sao Paulo governor race Reuters, Friday, October 23, 1998 at 07:44 (Adds latest polls for election) By John Miller SAO PAULO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Brazilians in the powerful state of Sao Paulo will choose a governor on Sunday who may ultimately determine how quickly President Fernando Henrique Cardoso can put the nation's wobbly economy on firmer ground. Cardoso desperately needs an ally in the Sao Paulo governor's mansion when he sends unpopular austerity measures to Congress, where the governor can influence the outcome and pace of voting. Leading a population over twice the size of Chile's and a $300 billion economy nearly on a par with Argentina's, Sao Paulo state governors play a major role in national politics. Cardoso, who was re-elected Oct. 4 for a second term, has little time to streamline public finances before incessant capital flight forces a punishing currency devaluation in Latin America's top economy, economists say. But the close Sao Paulo race is so important that he has delayed announcing sweeping tax increases and budget cuts to avoid hampering his longtime friend, Mario Covas, in Sunday's vote. Covas, seeking a second consecutive term as governor, has made a comeback in recent polls. Late Thursday Globo Television showed a poll issued by private research firm IBOPE where Covas had overtaken his rival, right-wing populist Paulo Maluf. The survey gave the 68-year-old social democrat 45 percent of the vote, up seven points from last week -- ahead of the 42 percent accorded to Maluf, a former mayor of Sao Paulo city. A similar IBOPE poll 10 days ago put Covas at 38 percent against 45 percent for Maluf. The margin of error in both polls was 2.2 percentage points. Neither man drew a simple majority of the vote on Oct. 4, forcing the runoff. Numbering 34 million people and accounting for a third of Brazilian economic output, Sao Paulo is the nation's most wealthy state and its governor's race has eclipsed 12 others being contested on the same day. "Cardoso would rather give up all the other races if he were assured he could take Sao Paulo," said David Fleischer, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia. "The Sao Paulo governor has tremendous economic power and the state political machine can exact a lot of influence over other states, especially in the northeast," he said. Covas has won praise from economists for putting Sao Paulo's financial house in order by restructuring the state's massive debt, laying off over 100,000 civil servants and selling inefficient state businesses. But his achievements did not make for a populist campaign platform and he barely drew enough votes on Oct. 4 to make it to the second round. Maluf's tough, law-and-order talk and his impressive track record in delivering huge public works projects like subways and tunnels make the 67-year-old engineer a formidable political opponent. He is widely expected to launch a bid for the presidency in 2002 should he win the Sao Paulo governorship. Still, his bombastic style and involvement in a number of questionable deals as mayor of Sao Paulo -- even his supporters say "He steals, but gets things done" -- hurt him in a recent televised debate with Covas, analysts say. Earlier this year Maluf took his tough stance on crime a little too far when he made a prank telephone call to an emergency operator to show a journalist how slow police reaction time was. They arrived at his office in just eight minutes, demanding an explanation. While Maluf may not directly oppose Cardoso's austerity measures in Congress, any support will almost certainly come at a price to Cardoso's cash-strapped federal government. "Maluf would probably ask for more favorable terms in negotiating state debt and for more public works, money for things like transportation," said Guilhon Albuquerque, a political scientist at the University of Sao Paulo. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service