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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Verkaylac who wrote (22784)	10/23/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164685

That's not it. OC can (and should, but won't) tell you that Mary's 8/4 report speaks about "near-term valuation concern." She's not hyping anything. She's speaking about Amazon's viability and her belief that Amazon is the next America Online. Her title for the report is "AOL Part Deux." That's not hype, because she was right-on (and in a minority) about America Online back in 1993, where she has lived through all the pedal-to-the-metal marketing spending and thus posponed profitability that AOL practiced to get big fast. That's what she defines as "swinging for the fences." Think Mark McGuire if you're long. IMO, think Mark McGuire if you're short. Mary doesn't lowball anything. I have found that here estimates are on the high end. Glenn can tell you that Mary's revenue estimates are on the near high side for this quarter, and I don't know of any other analyst expecting profitability in 2000.

To: Verkaylac who wrote (22784)	10/24/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

The Internet Capitalist SG Cowen Internet Research 8 News late last week that Wal-Mart is suing Amazon for allegedly pouching Wal-Mart employees raised our eyebrows. Above and beyond the central complaint in the case (that Amazon is targeting Wal-Mart employees who have an expertise with their proprietary distribution, data warehousing, and merchandise management system, Retail Link), what we are witnessing is no less than Goliath stoning David. Wal-Mart, with 825,000 employees, is 730 times the size of Amazon, with 1,130 employees and is 230 times as large on a revenue run rate basis ($125 billion versus $540 million). When combined with Bertelsmann's comments that "Amazon is a heavyweight," and that "we [Bertelsmann] have a good position now to start tough competition.", you'd think Amazon was causing these companies real pain. Though we never take a lawsuit for granted (having learned our lesson in 1994 with Microsoft), we tend to take a glass half full approach to this suit, insofar as it reinforces our view that Amazon is changing the very face of retail (a concept we have spoken frequently about and we embody in the phrase that “online retailing is different”). If companies as large as Wal-Mart and Bertelsmann are starting to understand the power of the Web and of tiny little Amazon, we can't believe the Street's understanding of the same won't become more clear soon. Excite (XCIT) Excite adopted a stockholder rights plan this week, to be triggered when any entity holds greater than 15% of the company, ostensibly to protect itself from any unsolicited acquisition attempts going forward. We can only hope that the move is pro-active and not reactive, considering the source of the last unsolicited acquisition offer Excite received. Excite also teamed with SportsLine USA (SPLN) this week to offer Excite users SportsLine content on the Excite Sports by SportsLine USA channel. Financial terms of the deal weren't discussed, though the deal is multi-year and will leverage Excite's sales staff, insofar as they will sell all of the traffic inventory produced by the channel. Good for Excite in that they get to offer better Sports content and can enhance their service; good for SportsLine in that they get exposure to a badly needed new revenue stream (recall that SportsLine pre-announced their September quarter and missed the Street's revenue expectations). Sterling Commerce (SE) Amid the confusion caused by Harbinger's (HRBC-not rated) pre-announcement of its September quarter results back on October 1st, Sterling's stock fell from $32 to $20 in misplaced sympathy, forcing Sterling, for the first time in its history as a public company, to pre-announce positive results. In a great example of delayed reaction, the stock took two full weeks to catch back up to its $32 level, posting a >50% move from its $20 low over that time frame. We used to call Sterling the most stable stock in our universe, an accolade we'll now have to re-think. Observations A Slowdown In Traditional Media Advertising? Over the last few week's we have watched as various traditional media concerns warned the Street that their advertising revenue could be slowing, in some cases significantly. A few week's back, Dow Jones warned the Street that it's advertising revenue would be lower than expected thanks to pullbacks in financial advertising (deal tombstones are drying up); then came Ziff Davis' turn. The big publisher of PC and technology trade rags is laying off 10% of its work force, dropping three publications, and taking a $50 million charge.