To: leisuresports who wrote (8315 ) 10/24/1998 6:07:00 AM From: Apakhabar Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14266
s.r. The main reason THQ doesn't get a much higher PE is because the products they sell have a limited shelf life. Quest, for example, apparently sold well for only one month this quarter, and from here out is essentially finished. Even the wrestling titles, our best sellers, need to be updated every few months, and I don't think many expect these wrestling games to sell at the present rate for more than a few years at best. Compare these products to Coca-Cola, for example, a taste and market for which practically gets inherited by future generations, and you can see why the street will never grant THQ a PE of 50. Game companies like THQ are under pressure every year to do everything almost exactly right. That said in response to your query, I will add that I believe THQ to be undervalued at present, because for almost four years now THQ has been doing almost everything exactly right, if we limit ourselves to looking at the numbers they post. I'm especially encouraged this quarter by the increase in profit margins. I think fair value is a PE in the high 20s, or a stock price between 25 and 30. I might hold it at those prices. The only near-term worry I have is the SEC investigation of the insider selling. One reason Farrell might finally have spoken up for the stock price is that a higher price might blunt the ardor of the investigators. A big adverse headline on this matter would certainly scare a few funds out and cripple the price. I am looking forward to reading the 10-Q when it comes out on the FreeEdgar site. More to the point, I am looking forward to a favorable-to-THQ resolution of the inquiry. Still long but saving some cash...