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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (16878)	10/24/1998 2:54:00 AM
From: Johnathan C. Doe	Respond to of 53068

Good points Ron. My goal is to have a decent return by the end of the year mark - May 22, 1999. My past experience is that it won't be easy to pull off as none of this is easy money. Still, I've only spent 3 hours a week on this portfolio and done a very poor job trading it. Pulled the trigger on AWRE way to quickly for example. Buying a micro cap like VRTL was another dumb move. Anyhow, using $200,000 for a few weeks to pull my ass out of a deep loss of over $90,000 or worse was worth the money spent. Sometimes using the money just to get even is a return on investment. That $200,000 actually made something like 90k of profits and so the return on that money was excellent. The fact that it was burned up by the losses from the other half turning sour from a tech bear like I have never seen is just the way it goes. I've still got some formable losses left to deal with and less to work with at the moment. Things could well get worse before they get better and they may never get better. That is the risk of this all. As for not posting; there wasn't anything much to share. I couldn't trade anything and so it just swung in the wind. I wasn't ashamed of how bad it got. I just knew that till the wind changed direction, there was nothing I could do but wait it out. I put a new set of trades in place and waiting till they panned out to post. I did the same thing in my real accounts. At some point, it always ends up just being a measure of one's ability to handle patience. Thank God, the fear element is gone. I don't panic anymore. I've learned a lot since the past effort, although the portfolio is similar and is playing out very similarly to the old one which had its day in the sun after the demise of the old thread. I'm hoping to demonstrate this one to a successful fruition, but nothing is guaranteed. It is all just an exercise in possibility. Can a group of tech dogs be traded to profitable conclusion given fair time? Can tech dogs be profitable using just public info. and internet resources? That is what I am trying to find out. Nobody can make any money going long in these, so some skill in trading them is needed. I am the first to admit that I have done a half-assed job trading what I've picked so far.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (16878)	10/24/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

a little exercise got to thinking looked at Last Shadows post Mr Doe's fake portfolio my own results the market so--- took many of the stocks that I have on my sector grid looked at the performance from the 10/8 low to Fridays close tried to remember all the various reasons that the "Talking Heads" gave for falling stock prices bottom line: the DOW IS NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE MARKET being in cash during the massive fall and jumping back in at the low would have given 3 years worth of average returns in 12 trading days the stocks/sectors that were beat up the worst gave the highest gains a table is on my next post might be worth printing out keeping for future reference something to ponder over

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (16878)	10/24/1998 8:20:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

% RETURNS ARE FROM THE LOW ON 10/8 TO THE CLOSE ON 10/23 % DJIA 13 7467-8452 HIGH TECH recession, asian flu, over capicity CPU 48 LU 45 CSCO 43 DELL 43 CPQ 26 ASND 25 IBM 21 MSFT 21 INTC 15 average 32 FINANCIALS recession, international issues, interest rates COF 86 PVN 74 KRB 46 BKB 38 CIT 37 FNM 32 JPM 29 FLT 27 average 46 LUXURY-TRAVEL recession. stock market losses, asian flu AVI 74 FS 64 CCL 56 RCL 48 HRZ 34 TIF 26 GUC 10 average 45 AIRLINES recession, asian flu, corporate cut backs AWA 43 LUV 35 AMR 33 ALK 28 DAL 20 average 32 OIL SERVICE supply demand inbalance TMAR 70 FLC 53 TDW 53 FGII 50 UTI 50 RIG 46 GLM 42 average 52 DRUGS no significant issues WLA 27 BMY 23 PFE 20 JNJ 15 LLY 14 MRK 7 average 18 NETS general volitility, lack of earnings SEEK 54 NSCP 46 AMZN 45 AOL 39 YHOO 25 XCIT 21 average 38 RETAIL recession, no Virginia, there will not be a Christmas this year HD 35 KM 35 TJX 31 WMT 28 FD 26 GPS 25 S 14 average 28 CHIPS, MEMORY, HARD DRIVES yuk,yuk,yuk, every issue mentioned above IRF 108 RDRT 61 VLSI 60 MU 49 NSM 41 QNTM 36 LSI 24 SEG 21 WDC 19 average 47 CASINOS recession, over capicity, asian flu CIR 52 HET 34 MGG 18 MIR 18 average 31 OVERALL AVERAGE 37%

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (16878)	10/24/1998 8:41:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Respond to of 53068

OK Mr Mac so I am not all that bright I was not all cash going into the fall I did not buy every stock at the exact low on 10/8 I kept a big cash position out of fear that this run was a head fake I did not hold the ones that I bought; flipped many of them; gave up a ton of gains as they kept going up held some crap that went nowhere even bought some that went down during the recent runup I have 25% of my funds in a margin account and 75% in cash IRA's so what should I have made over the last 12 trading days? well the DOW is up 13% Last's list up 27% my sector list up 37% so an average of 26% lets say that we "only" got half of the 37% high return, so 18.50% but leveraged some in the margin account the 12 day return should have been about 22-23% so overall a gain of say 20-30%, 25% average seems about right did you get that from 10/8 to 10/23? if not, why not? time to re think the way you are trading? if you got more than that, take a day off, go have some fun PS I may be out on Monday