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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2231)10/23/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Trader Dave  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6974
 
It reminds me of the trading surrounding a core holding of ours last July. The company came out and said we're significantly increasing our R&D spending because of some major opportunities raising the sustainability of our long term growth rate.

Stock lost 35% of it's value after that announcement as the momentum investors bailed out. Their loss.

SEBL "beat numbers by the lowest amount ever" what a load of crap. Frankly, showing modest upside only takes them out of the ridiculous estimate beating expectations game. Now we've got a well executing company in a market that will be larger than the erp market at a valuation comparable to the maturing/stagnating erp vendors. Perhaps there are other concerns beneath the surface of this negative sentiment.

I'm tempted to do some work on sebl 99 at these levels and see how robust a product it is. However, i remain uncomfortable with many of the management comments which i know haven't been truthful. Chart looks awful and the fear and loathing of enterprise apps is still strong. I can't think of what will fix the sentiment until they put up another stellar quarter.

TD



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2231)10/24/1998 6:11:00 AM
From: Lutz Moeller  Respond to of 6974
 
Michelle,

last Year saw lowest stock prices after the Asian Crisis just before Christmas. My ASND from oct at 35$ went down to 22$ in that time frame (now around 45$).

But last year was last year! Wonder, whether history shall repeat exactly?

Lutz



To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (2231)10/24/1998 7:52:00 AM
From: Diver  Respond to of 6974
 
MH:

Does not do? Unless something changes in the next few weeks, I cant see how the Fed wont cut rates.

The point being there was an expectation of a 1/2 point cut a little while back. When we only got 1/4 point, we tanked. While I expect that 1/4 point cut to come as much as the next guy, the market has already factored it in and any deviation may have a dramatic effect.

Diver


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