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To: bobby beara who wrote (22202)	10/24/1998 2:00:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116786

'Y2K bug will disrupt LME Metals By Reuters Special to CNET News.com October 22, 1998, 1:15 p.m. PT The millennium computer bug could cause volatility on the London Metal Exchange, the result of economic upheaval potentially triggered by global technology failures, Martin Squires of LME brokers Rudolf Wolff said. "This technology problem is arriving at a time when global tensions are high and rising. Wolff expects it to exacerbate market volatility during the closing stages of the millennium,'' the Wolff analyst said in a report today. He suggested, for example, that mining companies would be reluctant to send their work forces into mines because they will be concerned they and their power providers are not completely 2000 compliant. Mines could shut down or production problems could arise, he said. Equally there may be shipping difficulties. "Trade flows may be disrupted for an unspecified period and industry will look to build stockpiles ahead of 2000, switching from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' inventory practices," Squires predicted. "This is expected to boost Western metal demand and prices during the second half of 1999," he said. After January 1, 2000 two probable scenarios arise which could tip an already fragile global economy into recession, Squires added. Under the first, industrial output will slow as widespread disruption is caused by failing computers and chips, workers will be laid off and investment will be reduced, all restricting GDP. In the second scenario almost no technological problems occur and companies need to work off high inventories and reduce stockpiles. Workers are again laid off and GDP slows. As unemployement rises commodity prices will decline, "refueling the deflationary arguments and concerns about emerging market debt repayments," he said. news.com