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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (32292)	10/24/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: D & G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Vitas, We've been in BTDer mentality for too long. I have friends that have been bulls forever listening to the likes of Bob Brinker, that are now SCARED and want to get out @ 9000 at ALL COST. These are perma bulls that ALWAYS BTD. They are scared and want out. djf

To: Vitas who wrote (32292)	10/24/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Vitas and all, It appeared that the INTEREST RATEs basicly decoupled from the market at the 5.8%-6.0% level. I have also heard on several occassions that that the market can go higher if the rates stay very low even with the lower earnings, since the lower rates offsets the lower earnings. That does make sense. My question is, since I am really not a fundamentalist, at what level will the RATES re-couple with the market. Based on the belief of lower rates off setting lower earnings - if the earnings are lower then I feel it is logical to say that the level where the rate will re-couple with the market should be lower than the 5.8%-6.0% level. Am I making any sense or am I way off base. The reason I bring this up is that since the rates were so low, under 5.0%, it appears that many just forgot about it and many feel its going lower, especially with the FEDs actions/future rate cuts. Has anyone notice that the RATEs already approached 5.2%, and they are already substantially off their lows of 4.69% of only a few weeks ago. Heres my next point - Most are expecting that the FEDs will reduce rates in NOV, due to the worlds economic problem's effects on our economy. OK, HOWEVER, many of the Asian markets now are 25%-35% off their bottoms and JAPAN is showing signs that they now may be on the right path to recovery. No one is saying that the worlds economic problems are over, but many are now saying that the worse is probably out. Personally, Im not sure of that, but thats what I hear from the analysts/media. Also the U.S. market has recovered about 60% of its losses. So, is everyone still so sure that the FEDs will cut rates in NOV and continue such on a monthly basis. I do believe that with the DOW at 8500-8600 range, the NOV rate cut is already priced into the market. What happens if they dont cut rates. Getting back to INTEREST RATES - the U.S.BONDS were safe haven for both the stock market and international investors. Now that the overseas/domestic markets are recovering, it appears that funds are flowing out of our bond market which is pushing up rates. With the international/domestic markets improving, based on economic problems bottoming out and giving signs of improving - does the FEDs have the same motivation to still cut rates in NOV/continuously. Now tie that with international/domestic funds leaving the bond market pushing up INTEREST RATES. So where will interest rates re-couple with market, I think it would be in the 5.6%-5.9% range, based on lower earnings. Keep in mind that interest rates jumped .50% in just a few weeks and now already approaching 5.2%. Please understand that I am not saying that we will retest 7400 again, but I am getting the feeling that the upside will be limited and not to expect a strong runup as we had in JAN-APR to take us to new highs in the near future. I may be way off base - any thoughts?. seeya

To: Vitas who wrote (32292)	10/24/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Vitas, take a look at 1928- 1933 period and see a similar patern. BTW Russia and Brazil do not want to play by "OUR" rules.<gggg> Westerners!! please hold the bag <gggg> Wonder about China. BWDIK Haim

To: Vitas who wrote (32292)	10/24/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Vitas: Thanks for the chart links. One must indeed pay close attention to these charts. However, the charts are only displaying a a time frame which has occurred during a Bull Market. I will remain cautious! Regards, LG