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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (3711)	10/24/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

Thanks Rarebird. The question is, with all of this present euphoria, I'm wondering what event will be enough to sink the Dow back forcefully enough that the Fed and its agents are no longer able to stem the tide of sellers. And then that begs the question of; if we were irrationally exhuberant back at Dow 6000, who will pay the piper for creating the circumstances where the baby boomers were led from a false sense of security to their financial slaughter? Btw, has anyone presented any compelling reasons for adopting a buy and hold mentality prior to Y2K?? Seems to me that this event will create a strongly negative environment in which investors bail out hoping to "beat the rush". I still see the central banks selling off gold reserves in order to maintain the aura of economic strength. Combine that with wall street's snake oil analysts who lower earnings expectations, and then put out buy recommendations when companies eak out a penny or two above the drastically lowerd earnings bar and we'll see continued misallocation of investor assets with catastrophic effects. I don't know what the event will be, Brazil, continued defaults by the theftocracy known as Russia, Y2K, .... etc. But there is no doubt that it will come given falling commodity prices, a credit crunch exacerbated by the upcoming Y2K event, and the lack of hard currency in the Federal reserve system to meet even modest withdrawals from depositors seeking to accumulate a rainy day fund for Jan 1st, 2000. (100 million people withdrawing a mere $3,000 each would drain the Fed of all available hard currency.) But I'll be a buyer on Jan 1st, 2000 should Y2K prove to be a non-event. Should be some nice long-term bargains available then. Regards, Ron

To: Rarebird who wrote (3711)	10/24/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Cage Rattler	Respond to of 5676

Rarebird: Good thoughts -- Let me suggest something. Greenspan's moves are an effort to temper the reality of the serious reduction in foreign demand for US goods. The initial FED moves were timed to ease the shock during the election (possibly?) and particularly during the Christmas retail season. The assumption being that consumer spending will cushion the economic impact of foreign demand. Therefore I expect further FED intervention, if and when the market falters between now and seasons end. The bulls may be moving up, but they are navigating with a a new smoke-and-mirrors GPS (Greenspan Positioning System). The effectiveness of this ploy has a limited life span. Ciao, Ted