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To: HeyRainier who wrote (1490)10/24/1998 3:08:00 AM
From: HeyRainier  Respond to of 1720
 
[ RADAF: A correction ]

I wish to correct the figures for Inventory Turnover in the previous post. After re-examining the figures, it appears that I had directed one of my Excel links to the incorrect inventory cell for calculation of average inventory; and extending the cells sheet-wide to recreate the same formula for other cells only compounded the error.

Here is how I calculated Inventory Turnover:

Inventory turnover = (Cost of goods sold)/(Average Inventory)

Average Inventory = (Beginning Inventory + Ending Inventory)/2

The corrected figures for Inventory Turnover are as follows:

Qtr.....1997.....1998
---------------------
Q1......N/A.....4.14
Q2......2.89.....3.77
Q3......2.96.....3.25
Q4......3.60.....N/A

Sorry for the confusion. Please note however that even with the revised figures, the relationship I provided in my previous argument still holds. It appears that the trend for inventory turnover took a U-turn for 1998.

RT



To: HeyRainier who wrote (1490)10/24/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Wink  Respond to of 1720
 
You said it, interesting stuff! Thanks for taking the time to put it up for us all. ;>)



To: HeyRainier who wrote (1490)10/25/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: swedelo  Respond to of 1720
 
Mr. Trinidad,

Just wondering, what (if any) role, the fact that Radica went through and completed a plant expansion during Q2-Q3 98 had on any of your inventory calculations? Also, the fact that the company stated it built up volume in inventories of it's ODM units in Q2 using its brand spanking new 70% increase in manufacturing capabilities to accomplish this and to begin to build substantial volume to meet demand for christmas season, for it's name brand line of toys, which they fell far short of being able to accomplish last year at full capacity!

Also, does it matter that they have doubled their market percentage in the last year, Becoming the number one handheld toy manufacturer in the world with (the last I saw) about 45% (it was around 22% this time last year I believe) of the market, and more than 55% if you include their ODM toys.

Does it matter at all, that even as margins stabilized and revenue growth diminished somewhat, that it still grew even in a period as the old line (fishing games, (you broached this topic in your life-cycle post I believe)) were dropping off in sales while new lines were effectively picking up the slack enough to still show growth.

It appears more to me that Radica has simply gone through a growth and diversification stage the last two quarters which make your static statistics look discourageing when actually the opposite is the truth.

Best Wishes,
Swedelo



To: HeyRainier who wrote (1490)10/26/1998 4:18:00 AM
From: Chris  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1720
 
keep up the good work my friend!

excellent analysis



To: HeyRainier who wrote (1490)10/26/1998 4:28:00 AM
From: swedelo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1720
 
Mr. Trinidad II,

Mr, Trinidad. A friend whom does not enjoy posting rights on S.I. but has been reading your latest material on RADAF asked that I pose these questions to you for your insightful response.

Dear Mr. Trinidad,

Your new found interest in RADAF is timely. I just wish your talents could have picked this one off back in June so I might have sold at twenty. But, before I spend my grandmothers estate on selling this stock please answer these following questions:

1) How was the decline in RADAF in the last 6 months any different than the punishment taken by small-caps in general ( yes I am already aware that RADAF's decline is about 10% greater than the Russell 2000, but RADAF was due for a 10% decline anyway)?

2) Have you ever sold a stock at a 4.9 PE?

3) How long have you been interested in RADAF?

4) Have you been to any of the stores and seen RADAF's new line of toys? Stealth Assault, Sub Hunt, Tank Assault, Trail burner, Tracer Ace, Deep Sea Fishing, Nascar Racer....etal.

5) Are you aware of the Girltech aquisition and managements discussion of the future diversification of their product line using same:

girltech.com

If not, then you should be, because web sites like this are the wave of the future, and RADAF is there!

6) RADAF holds a 34.6% interest in U-tel, Inc. A private company Incorporated in Nevada, which is engaged in research and developement of futuristic telecommunications equipment. Were you aware of this?

7) RADAF has no debt.

8) RADAF has been re-purchasing their own stock ( 3 million so far; or, approximately 15% of shares outstanding). And, though I wish they could find some other use for their excess cash, at least management considers it a good investment.

I do not think I want to short this stock.......Thanks....

Respectfully,
Mr. Gentry

P.S.: I noticed in one of your previous posts you mentioned Mr. Buffet with a certain amount of esteem. Isn't Mr Buffet a Disciple of long term investing in companies that you know and understand? It would be interesting to see what Warren would think of your very narrow short-term technical views on RADAF as an investment opportunity.

Best Wishes,
Swedelo