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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marconi who wrote (14780)	10/24/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 18691

Marconi, thanks for the info on NSOL, I will have a look.

To: Marconi who wrote (14780)	10/26/1998 12:01:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Marconi, Nice to see AG's 1/4 pt cut good for 1,200 pts on the Dow. All the Bears and Bulls are pulling out their charts, models and graphs looking for trends to guess where this market is moving to. You'd think LTCM would have taught everyone a valuable lesson in expecting the unexpected. A Bull market that's 16 years old and up over 1,200% in that and being fueled by baby boomers saving for retirement is not going to die a fast death. I believe we are heading into a recession/depression epic proportions in the next couple of years and can see the Dow dropping 75% in the next 2 years to 2,000. 1) The Dow was up a little over 100% from the high in 1929 to 1982. From 1982 to the high in 1998 the Dow was up 1,200%. 2) Japan will continue to drift towards the financial abyss. They will not be able to help bail out Asia. 3) Yelstin will be probablly replaced by some fanatical nationalist that will scare investments out of Eastern Europe. 4) Y2K. If there are any kinks that surface during those "key dates" in 1999 then the media will beat it to death. 5) Devaluation (China, Hong Kong, Brazil, etc.) 6) Presidential impeachment hearings 7) Slowing US economy. Lower profits will lead to more layoffs which will lead higher unemployment. As people read about cut backs, they'll hold off on those big ticket items. 2/3rds of GDP is consumer spending. 8) In 1929, 3% of the people owned stock. In 1998 it's closer to 50%. However I would venture to guess that the top 3% of hareholders own a majority of the stock. What effect the hedge fund losses of LTCM, Tiger, Soros etc. will have on the rich will become evidnet in December when they're allowed to take out their money. 9) World wide deflation in commodities, wages and technlogy will not be solved by the US alone. 10) From 1975 I saw an averae house in NYC increase from $ 30K to $ 300K in 12 years . 11 years later the average house was selling for $ 250K. In 1987, Fortune had an article on what RE would be worth in 10 years and they had the average NYC house increasing to $ 800K. With wages increasing 3% and inflation less then 2% the doubling of stocks in 3 years is irrational. 11) PE's, Price to BV and yields have never been this bad.