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To: ERM who wrote (2940)10/24/1998 1:03:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Respond to of 29970
 
I think you can see that I'm creating potential resolutions as I write. It is critically important to try to do this. In this effort we don't resolve anything, but we do sew seeds that influence indirectly, subtly, infinitesimally, those who do. Neither they nor anyone else know from where those thoughts came. The ideas become embedded in the mental fabric of society.

I'm only using you as a point in the counterpoint. You raise valid questions and I'm struggling with myself to see the way through. If I can see a way out, others will too, including Kennard and Ness. As far as watching government is concerned Matt had a good suggestion about email flooding of the FCC. AOL wants to complain? We'll send the internet hordes in and shut down their 28.8 government!

I'm confident that the simple question Matt asked about how AOL would get through to a high speed delivery, was properly answered by $25 to AOL, $15 to TCI and ATHM, or similar proportions of the basic rate. Once broadband becomes ubiquitous and its capabilities exploited, there will be various flat rate or one time charges for various special services, programs, VOD. Pricing flexibility for variety will give cable ISPs which all copper ones will become, product differentiation and opportunities to grow. Copper ISPs are dead as investments simply because they can't add value. They're just cash cows. Once hook-up potential is saturated, ISPs will only be able to grow vertically.

One way or the other the T-TCI merger will go through. When that happens there will be a quickening of telco-MSO-ISP mergers/buyouts to compete with them. When is dependent on FCC interference. They might revert to "all powers to the peoples" thinking and that would slow the inevitable. Get in a Republican administration and things will be resolved fast. Government has far too many frivolous actions against many corporations. It is abuse of power.

People playing takeovers should focus on the MSOs. Even though the when could be years away, in the interim a well chosen MSO can advance on its own merits and be a potential buyout target. Another tough but viable strategy would be to buy small independent private ISPs. Sooner of later they'll be gobbled by the majors.