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To: Larry S. who wrote (16884)	10/24/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Respond to of 53068

>>> Put up chart of $INDU, if it was a stock, i would have my finger on the sell button. agree Larry ... sold out quite a few yesterday, made no new entry's looks like a down trendline and we may be in for a dip here.

To: Larry S. who wrote (16884)	10/24/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Respond to of 53068

Larry I get very worried when I agree with you only exception not sure we will see 7400 again soon but, a very high probability of falling to 8100 and at least a 50/50 chance of testing 7800 over the next few weeks cash is good margin overnight is a no-no crap sucks pennies are death the previous posts I did points out that one only needs to play good companies that are profitable and have decent fundamentals to make excellent returns in an environment like we are in right now and be able to shift from stock to stock and sector to sector not get locked into just a few old favorites to be patient have buying power for when all the stars line up and even think about going on the short side (GGG) from time to time

To: Larry S. who wrote (16884)	10/24/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: Susan Saline	Respond to of 53068

contrarion thoughts .... this rally may continue on the anticipation of another Fed. rate cut, 3rd week in Nov. then .... 3rd week in Nov. BAMM ... correction time, whether we get the rate cut or not. as any good news of another rate cut is already built in with this current rally ..... a rally that may last up till that Nov. meeting.

To: Larry S. who wrote (16884)	10/24/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Market and some weekend babble lol. Ron, Thanks for the list and research. One thing that I find very useful about your post is that it provides a benchmark to judge one's account over the past few weeks. If one wasn't up at least 25% over that period, then you could say that the account underperformed the average. It doesn't mean that you are a failure, but it probably means that you need to think out the stocks that you are holding or trading. If the market turns down, the stocks that showed poor relative strength over the past few weeks will probably be the weakest. I'm happy to say that my personal account beat the average by a wide margin over that time period although I am using some margin and have been both short and long, sometimes both on the same day in different stocks. Larry, With regards to if $INDU was a stock...one thing that I find interesting about DIA is that since it trades like a stock, one can analyze the same technical indicators for it just like a stock. For example, IQ Suite provides the money flow for DIA although there's no easy way to track the money flow for the DJIA other than reviewing each of the stocks. If one accepts that DIA is a proxy for the market, it provides a very useful way to get a handle on analyzing the DOW technicals. Ok, so where are we at now with DIA? It has support between 83 1/4 and 84 and the money flow was negative for the week primarily due to Friday's outflow which wiped out the inflows from Monday - Thursday. One thing that makes me not worry too much about Friday is that the volume was down. The stochastic and RSI indicate that DIA is clearly overbought; however, that alone doesn't mean that it will go down. After the big up day on October 15, the market has basically been consolidating in a narrow range. I don't know which way the market will break out of this consolidation but once it does, I think we will see some follow through in that direction for at least a day or two. IF DIA breaks 86 3/4, then I think it will likely test 88. If it breaks 83, then I think it will likely test 81 1/2. The weekly chart is no where near overbought. In fact, it has just started an up trend. Because of this, I think pullbacks in DIA will be contained by 81 1/2 (~DJIA 8150). Investors had discounted a recession next year and I sense that the psychology has changed to no recession next year. There is also growing optimism that Asia is getting their banking system and economy in order and the Nikkei has put on quite a rally and is holding above 14,000. This is also supportive for our market from a psychological perspective. Because of these new developments, I think the bear market is over and that pullbacks will be short lived. IMO, the market will gradually increase in value as the recession fears come out and growth is again discounted. Another thing to consider is that the DJIA is only 30 stocks and is not representative of the average stock. The Nasdaq did much better than the DOW yesterday and the advance decline line was positive despite a small decline in the Nasdaq. This indicates that some of the mid and small cap stocks are continuing to see inflows of money at the expense of large caps. I don't buy the notion that money will continue to chase large caps just because they have been institutional favorites in the past. As Ron's research verified, the most money over the past few weeks was made in value stocks that had been beaten up beyond reason. Many of these are still cheap relative to the large caps although some of the margin is now gone. Selectivity is in order, but I think many small to mid cap stocks are the place to be right now. The SOX and Russell 2000 were the only indexes that were up on Friday and I think the semiconductor stocks are a good choice on pullbacks. For example, VLSI at 9 to 9 1/4 is a good bet as you noted. I also like IRF at 7 3/8, ATML at 10, LSI at 12 3/4 to 13, and NSM at 10 to 10 1/4. In the retailing sector, I like PIR at 8 7/8 and BBY at about 41 1/2. CLE reached my buy point on Friday at 15 1/2 but I wasn't watching it and missed it. I would buy it on a pullback to that area again. PETM has a nice base at about 6 1/2 and looks like a good trade for a move to 7 1/4 to 7 1/2. Many traders stick with a small group of stocks because they get a good feel for how they trade. I am more comfortable doing this although I sense that some of us are looking for new ideas. I tend to stick with the same stocks and work them over many times. My role on SI has always been to review stocks that are suggested by others. I don't think I'm very good at finding new candidates although I do think I'm good at reading charts. This thread has been successful because collectively we make a good team. Each of us has our strengths and weaknesses, but together we do better than we would alone. Have a nice weekend everybody. Dan