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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (56233)	10/24/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

As I posted last week, I thought it would take 2 weeks to see what this market had in mind. I still think that way. Next week should be more revealing since many stocks are at more meaningful resistance areas or have retraced the 50-62% that could be expected in a bounce. Like Don mentioned, I have many of my indicators at midrange also however others are almost maxed out in the over bought regions. GTW, MU are near peaks on my indicators and IBM is still way over bought however I didn't like the intra day chart pattern (bullish triangle) so I didn't buy puts yet. What troubles me is that I have certain stocks that I have found to generally be ahead of the market in movement. These are largely institutionally owned and tend to be the first to run up or fall leaving us scratching our heads trying to figure out why. Then a few weeks later the rest of the market follows. These stocks right now are not participating in this rally which as usual has me scratching my head. LU is at formidable resistance in this 80 area, DELL is languishing and as Don pointed out could be signalling a changing of the guard for the NASDAQ. I am starting to notice that as in the previous bogus run up, that the weaker companies are starting to rally while many good growth companies with real earnings are holding back. The market is always right but earnings and growth are also supposed to be the main drivers. The SOX has been extremely strong lately yet I don't see DRAM prices doubling soon or fabs upgrading with new found money tomorrow. IBM released stagnate PC sales with a bearish future outlook and stated sevices would be slower from the feedback thay had received from their customers yet they are at a new high. I maintain multiple charts and as of today, my favorite shorting stocks have rallied strongly and my favorite long stocks are about 50/50 as for showing strength. This bull may be real but I still suspect that this may be one more attempt by the bigger money to get out of some of their weaker issues at higher prices and position themselves for a longer term recessionary environment. The volume patterns on the advances and declines are not consistant with the price movements on many issues. On the other hand, new lows are staying under 50 and new highs should start increasing soon. The NASDAQ finally punched through my intermediate channel downtrend line albeit only by a few points, but it was able to do so. The DOW penetrated one of my weaker lines but has since paralleled it for the last few sessions so a failure or breakout should happen this coming weak. The OEX is still holding in the middle of the original stair step channel pattern as I mentioned last week also. It has not yet tested either the top or bottom trendlines of this channel. Until we test these, I don't see how we can make an assumption of bear vs bull for the longer term. Future market drivers I see coming... Fed meeting early November, as Don stated, buy the rumor sell the news? Options expiration, we have rallied since the last one so the weighting of calls vs puts I would assume should be call side heavy. I have not weighted these yet since it is still a long way off but a drop as expiry gets closer would not surprise me to much. Impeachment hearings and Bosnia deadline for pull out. I still get the feeling that we are near a short term top as some of these gains have been almost vertical on the charts. A normal pullback and re-test will form inverted head and shoulders on many of my charts which will baffle many of us that use TA as our primary indicators but weigh FA as well in our analysis. From a FA point of view, I still ask myself if all our problems were solved by a 1/2 point cut in our interest rate and the answer comes out no. The ships are still leaving our docks empty, there are farms going out of business across the mid west, the brokerages are laying off and despite this bounce bonuses will be lower this year for those that remain thus pumping less money into retailers. Silly valley is laying off more everyday to boot. I am still searching for the holy grail that will signal the start the next downleg I feel is still coming. Asia, Brazil, Russia, impeachment hearings, a war started to divert attention from impeachment hearings etc etc. I guess I will stop this rambling and bury my head in my charts again. Thank you all for the kind words in regards to my/my base's loss. The price of freedom is often high even during peaceful times. Good Luck and stay nimble. My guess is up until Fed meeting unless Asia or Brazil falls apart. Then we start sliding again. Lee

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (56233)	10/24/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: wiley murray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Lisa: WFC:NEW SITE:I have started a site just for option traders who are interested in trading WFC. Hope to see you and other option traders at this new site. Thanks.