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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (32327)	10/24/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

"Depression Ahead" changed to "Depression Beginning" Prechter on the market interactive.wsj.com

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (32327)	10/24/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Haim: The upcoming week may be interesting. Quite a few of the indices are close to points where they would break their downtrend. The SOX has broken through but others like the TRAN, OSX, RUT, etc. are just sitting there. If we have a correction to this current rally without reaching new lows, several indices could have nice reverse head and shoulder patterns That would allow us to gather some steam for another assault on the trend-breaking points. On the other hand, this may be a bear market rally which is ready to end and go to new lows. The initial bear market rally of 1973 - 1974 peaked out at 987 on the DJI on October 25, 1973. By December 5, 1973, it was at 788 for a 20 percent decline in about 6 weeks. There are some similarities and differences between then and now. We haven't had any terrible news for a while now. Maybe we are due. I think I will climb up on my fence after the weekend and just watch what happens. I am not sure which side of the fence I will climb down.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (32327)	10/25/1998 10:44:00 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Haim, We are facing the scepter of world-wide deflation for the first time since 1929. We have not encounter this big issue in the last 16 years. In '29, the lending rates went from 6% to 1.5% and that did not do anything for the market, except go down. Germany continues unwilling to cut their rates because of EMU, but they have to balance that with potential recession for the new leader. There is also potential strong competition from the EMU currency, which will keep the US dollar unstable for a while. Sick economies cannot be cured in 3 or 6 months, rather 2 years is more likely. Asia was and will be the engine for this global economic growth and prosperity, and this engine is not running. IMF infusions made thus far are only good for keeping political stability, not for stabilizing the economies, and definitely not for reviving the engine. It will take at least 2 to 3 years to fix it. In 1929, it took several years to revive the US economy, didn't it? I agree, Dr Feel Goods Greenspan and Rubin actions will only postpone the inevitable. I am looking for the next big downdraft in March-May 99 time period. Between now and then, this market will be great for traders, and play both long and short. By the way, Y2K problem will also take a lot of capital out of the US economy. That funds is for fixing problem and will not have produce positive growth to the companies. BWDIK, it's only a bubba's opinion.