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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (196)10/24/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: LWolf  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 335
 
THE INFO TECH 100 (DELL is # 1)
from Business Week 11/2/98

businessweek.com@@b7juWGUAdhlTiAAA/premium/44/covstory.htm
(see bold below and article to follow, lw)

The world's best-performing information technology companies

If you had to pick the world's hardest-charging technology company, which
one would it be? For most of us, the initial choice would be Microsoft Corp. Bill
Gates & Co. have honed aggressiveness into a near-art--with amazing
results. The company has a stranglehold on desktop software. It has gained
the upper hand in Internet browsers. It boasts $17.2 billion in cash, the most
of any U.S. company. And now it's shoehorning its software into everything
from TV set-top boxes to burglar alarms.

But this year,take nothing for granted. The tech industry is undergoing
sweeping change brought on by the Internet, the rise of wireless
communications, the fast-approaching Millennium Bug, and the economic
turmoil spreading around the globe. And while Microsoft remains a daunting
powerhouse, all is not what it used to be.

We took a careful statistical look at performance in the high-tech industry and
unearthed a batch of surPrises. For one, mighty Microsoft is playing second
fiddle to SAP, the German software maker of programs that automate all the
big jobs in a company--finance, manufacturing, and inventory control. Intel
Corp., the computer-chip maker on its way just a year ago to becoming the
most profitable company in the world, has stumbled. Instead, Britain's
Vodafone Group PLC and Finland's Nokia Corp. have rocketed to the toP by
riding demand for wireless communications. And tiny MindSpring Enterprises
Inc. has elbowed its way into the circle of Internet elite.

These are some of the findings in BUSINESS WEEK's first annual Information
Technology 100. The purpose of the ranking is to take a quantitative look at
which companies are the top performers in what is fast becoming the world's
most important industry. In the U.S., technology contributes roughly 30% of
the growth in gross domestic product, adding over $1.1 trillion to national
output in the past three years. ''Technological change is the ultimate driveR
of increases in standards of living,'' says Paul M. Romer, professor of
economics at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business. ''Without it,
growth stops.''

How did we come by our ranking? We started with high-tech companies culled
from the database of Standard & Poor's Compustat and then added non-U.S.
companies. We divided the tech companies into eight categories, including
software, networking, and the Internet. Since revenue growth is the
touchstone of technology, we eliminated the companies that didn't grow as
fast as their industry.

Then, all the remaining companies were judged on four key criteria that were
given equal weight. Again, revenue growth was used. Total revenues were
factored in as recognition that absolute size is important. Shareholder return
is included because it's the free market's objective measure of how a
company is performing. And we counted return on equity because--call us
old-fashioned--we think profits matter. Hats off to Dell, Vodafone, and SAP.
They top the inaugural Info Tech 100.

The ranking, however, is about more than bragging rights. It's also a weather
vane that shows where information technology is headed. Look closely, and
you can see the broad currents and secondary eddies washing through the
technology field. Even where trends are obvious, such as the rise of the
Internet, the Info Tech 100 spotlights the companies that are leading the way.

BIG IRON, TOO. Ultimately, the list forces a reexamination of what we think
we know about technology. You've heard that nobody uses mainframe
computers anymore? Tell that to No. 7-ranked Compuware Corp. or No. 17
BMC Software Inc., which are practically printing money by selling software
tools for the industry's big iron. ''People announced that the mainframe was
dead five or six years ago--that's just not how it worked out,'' says Peter
Karmanos Jr., CEO of Compuware. Karmanos is doing so well that he bought
the National Hockey League's Carolina Hurricanes.

The Asia turmoil must be dragging down all the tech companies in the Far
East, right? Wrong. Check out Taiwanese motherboard maker Asustek
Computer Inc., which ranks 18th, thanks to an 85% surge in sales. Or
25th-placed Hon Hai Precision Co., a Taiwanese computer manufacturer with
65% revenue growth.

And then there's the Big Enchilada of techdom--the Internet. It's not just that
more people are signing up with America Online Inc. and looking at Yahoo!
Inc.'s Web site. The Net is ushering in profound change. Its vast, speedy
reach is prompting companies to rethink every millimeter of their
business--how to link up instantly with suppliers, contractors, manufacturers,
and especially customers. To get the most out of the new Net economics,
companies are automating internal functions right down into the bowels of
their businesses. ''The Internet really is the biggest change of the last 100
years in the technology world,'' says John W. Sidgmore, vice-chairman of MCI
WorldCom Inc., a major carrier of phone and Net traffic.

The ranking is chock-full of companies that have figured out how to build the
networks for the new era. Top-ranked Dell Computer Corp., which almost
tripled shareholders' money in the year ended Sept. 30, is the supplier of
choice for corporate PCs, the gateways to the networked world (page 112).
No. 11-ranked Cisco Systems Inc. provides the routers and switches to carry
the digital lifeblood of companies across far-flung networks. And SAP and No.
34-ranked Oracle Corp. sell the enterprise and database software that tie it
all together. When a salesman secures a big order, for example,
manufacturing is automatically notified.

The top 100 also is a reminder of just how brutal tech competition can be.
Former powerhouses like Motorola Inc., Apple Computer Inc., and AT&T
Corp. didn't make the cut. Noticeably low on the list is Compaq Computer
Corp., the largest PC maker in the world, limping in at No. 97. The company
suffered a loss of $2.4 billion for the 12 months ended June 30, and
shareholders took a 15% hit during the year ended Sept. 30. The reasons for
the subpar performance? Compaq took a huge charge because of its
acquisition of Digital Equipment Corp., and the surging popularity of
sub-$1,000 PCs crunched margins.

Count Intel as another victim of cheap PCs. The company is half of the
''Wintel'' juggernaut with Microsoft. Now, with sales growth slowing to a mere
2.5%, it ranks a mediocre No. 47 on the Info Tech 100. Still, Intel may not be
down for long. Third-quarter profits--not counted in this ranking--outdistanced
analysts' expectations.

Intel aside, less expensive PCs have benefited other technology companies
by getting computers into the hands of more people. Some 46% of U.S.
homes have PCs now, compared with 39% in 1996, according to International
Data Corp. Most rewarded are the players in the booming Internet field--AOL,
Network Solutions, and Amazon.com, to name just a few. Even companies
providing access to the Web, a business written off just a year ago as
hopelessly unprofitable, are flourishing--witness No. 35-ranked MindSpring
Enterprises (page 114).

MOBILE MANIA. Perhaps the only technology boom that can give the Net a
run for its money is wireless communications. In developed countries, mobile
phones are popping up on beaches, in cars, on hiking trails--you get the
picture. In parts of countries such as Brazil and China, they're being adopted
as the only means of communication. That has driven the number of users
worldwide to 213.7 million at the end of 1997, up from 144.2 million a year
earlier, according to the International Telecommunication Union. The prime
beneficiary is Vodafone Group, which provides wireless service in Britain and
a dozen other countries (page 114).

There are even a few new twists in the basic phone business. Consider
Century Telephone Enterprises Inc. The Monroe (La.) company has taken the
road less traveled--marketing phone and high-tech services in rural and
suburban markets. These are the regions that most experts say are being left
behind in the Information Age. Shows how little they know. Century sells
services, such as Net access or caller I.D., to 18.6% of its customers.

Such are the surprises in BUSINESS WEEK's ranking of tech superstars.
Plunge on for more.

By Peter Elstrom in New York, with Catherine Yang in Washington and bureau
reports

Copyright 1998, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.





To: Gabriel008 who wrote (196)10/24/1998 5:38:00 PM
From: LWolf  Respond to of 335
 
WHAT DOES NO. 1 DO FOR AN ENCORE?
Business Week 11/2/98
(premium service)
businessweek.com@@b7juWGUAdhlTiAAA/premium/44/covstory.htm

Dell Computer has ridden the direct sales of PCs into the
stratosphere. Here's how it plans to stay there

Dell Computer Corp. defies gravity. Whether you measure its growth in sales,
profits, market share, or stock price, the company is simply weightless. Last
year, sales climbed from $7.7 billion to $12.3 billion. Profits rose from $518
million to $944 million. And then there's Dell stock, which has split six times in
the past six years and continues to soar, up 120% this year, to $53. To top it
off, Dell is now the largest merchant on the Internet, selling $6 million worth of
gear daily. And all of this after three previous years of similar pyrotechnics.
That's why Dell ranks No. 1 on the BUSINESS WEEK Info Tech 100 list of top
performers.

So what does the company do for an encore? Ask CEO Michael S. Dell, and
he'll tell you with his typical straight face: more of the same. Well, sure, that's
what you'd expect him to say. Except Dell--whose direct-manufacturing model
shook up the industry by redefining customer service as the speedy delivery
of custom-built PCs--now wants to get even more up close and personal with
buyers. ''Our industry has generally neglected the customer. I want to take
the customer experience to a whole new level,'' Dell says.

That's not just marketing mumbo jumbo. For Dell, it's a new battle cry. The
33-year-old CEO sees customer service as the ''next battleground for market
share.'' And nowhere will that be more true, say analysts, than in the
consumer and home-office PC markets, which Dell is just beginning to target.
''The consumer and home-office markets are going to be where the growth is,
and that's where I want us to go next to keep growing,'' Dell declares.

The message isn't lost on the troops at Dell's suburban Austin, Tex.,
headquarters. Pinned to a wall amid a sea of cluttered cubicles is a
photograph of Dell. Someone has drawn a hat on him, the kind worn by Uncle
Sam. A slogan scrawled below reads: ''Michael wants YOU to OWN your
relationship with the customer.'' Just in case there's any doubt, Dell has tied
bonuses and profit-sharing to service improvements of at least 15% this year.
Success will be measured by shipping deadlines, fixing machines on the first
try, and getting repair people to customers within 24 hours.

Dell's new customer-service plan: Use the Internet to automate and customize
service, in much the same way that Dell streamlined and customized PC
production. The do-it-the-customer's-way mantra has created for Dell the
tightest--and most envied--relationship with buyers in the PC business. By
using communications links over speedy private networks and the vast
Internet, Dell plans not only to provide personalized Web pages for
non-corporate customers but also to answer knotty service questions with the
lightning speed that only the Net can deliver. ''All our customers have
individual files with us online,'' says Scott Eckert, director of Dell Online. ''Why
not expand those files for a new kind of direct-service model, one that will
enable conversations with customers about service, industry trends, and new
products--or even, say, weather and news someday?''

Weather and news from your PC company? It couldn't hurt. Research results
from PC users show consumers are not yet satisfied with the industry's track
record on service. In the November issue of San Francisco-based PC World
magazine, a reader survey found that Dell and Micron Electronics Inc. were
the only two manufacturers (out of 17) that ranked ''good'' for ''reasonably
reliable systems and serviceable support.'' None of the companies, though,
earned an ''outstanding'' rating on its work, home, or notebook PCs.

Dell scored high mostly for having a very low rate of out-of-box quality
problems. But its ranking was dragged down by complaints of long waits on
the phone and a relatively high percentage of unresolved problems.
''Creating a new direct-service model is extremely important,'' says Dell
strategist Kevin Rollins. ''The first company to crack this--or who can do
quality and service demonstrably better--will have a new, sustainable
advantage over everyone else.'' Today, only a third of Dell's customer-service
force is dedicated to handling queries online.

So far, Dell has been better than most rivals at customer hand-holding, online
and off. Last fall, Dell delivered eight customized PowerEdge servers to
NASDAQ in New York in 36 hours so the exchange could handle higher
trading volume during the first whiffs of the Asian crisis. ''We didn't have to
pay extra,'' says John Delta, director of NASDAQ's interactive services.
''Originally, Dell got in with us on price, but that's not the issue now. Their
customer support and service is what's driving our relationship.''

That's what Dell wants to keep hearing, from a whole new crowd of less
tech-savvy buyers--the small-business owners and the work-at-home crowd.
''The Net allows us to take personalizaton to the next level,'' says Dell.
Starting this fall, the company will expand its online forums with Dell
executives, called ''Breakfast with Dell,'' beyond big corporate buyers to small
businesses. The live chats will cover topics ranging from the Year 2000
problem to trends in the server market. Further down the road, there will be a
way for customers to ask hundreds of service questions, all of which, says
Dell's senior Web manager Manish Mehta, will be answered automatically
from Dell's online knowledge bank with the help of artificial-intelligence
software.

''CUDDLY TOUCHES.'' And coming in the next few months: more warm and
fuzzy Web-service features, including ''My Dell'' Web pages--customized
pages for small-business and home-office consumers. Such additions will
enable these users to trade service tips, answer queries, and get weather,
business information, and technical support papers over the Web. Also in the
works is the ''virtual account executive.'' Interested in a notebook but can't fly
to Austin for a demonstration? ''That's fine,'' says Rollins. ''Go to our Web
site, and get a full-motion video of someone explaining it.''

To Dell, the benefits of dispensing more service over the Net are twofold: ''It
can be a great relief valve for disgruntled customers,'' says Mehta--and a
relief for shareholders, too. Doug Chandler, a customer-service analyst at
International Data Corp., estimates that phone calls to give service and
support can cost PC companies $25 apiece. Dell's online service operation,
he says, saves a bundle--thousands of calls per week and potentially millions
of dollars. If that's extended to include a greater percentage of Dell's
customers, it could save millions more.

Can Dell pull it off? The direct-service approach works well with corporate
buyers--the bulk of Dell's business. Consumers and small businesses,
though, expect far more hand-holding, and are more inclined to hunt for
bargains. They're also often enamored of the marketing ploys and gee-whiz
gizmos that make corporate-account managers cringe. ''For all its success,
Dell has had little experience with these cuddly touches,'' says Kevin Knox,
senior analyst at Gartner Group.

And even if Dell persuades the masses it's tip-top in customer service, there
are other challenges facing the company. At a Sept. 25 meeting for analysts,
there were questions about price. While Dell's machines are still cheaper than
comparable ones from Compaq and IBM, Dell hasn't been lowering prices as
fast. ''Normally, Dell had a $100 to $200 price advantage because of its direct
model, but that advantage is nearly gone,'' says James Poyner, a PC analyst
at CIBC Oppenheimer. ''Isn't price supposed to be Dell's advantage?''

Not necessarily. Now that customer service is the new battleground, price may
not be the main event. Says Dell: ''IBM and Compaq are assuming that price
is the problem. The problem is that the dealer channel they're using has
fundamentally failed customers.''

And what about continuing efforts by rivals to mimic Dell's direct model?
Copycats such as Gateway and Micron still don't have the heft and market
clout of Dell. As for rivals such as Compaq who use middlemen, Dell wins on
cost. ''Anyone who tries to go direct now will find it very difficult--like trying to
jump over the Grand Canyon,'' says Dell. And now, with his efforts to get even
more personal with customers over the Web, Dell's hoping that gap just got a
lot wider.

By Marcia Stepanek in Round Rock, Tex.

Copyright 1998, by The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (196)10/25/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 335
 
Gabriel,

I would imagine that if DELL sold PUTs when the stock was in the 40's a few weeks ago that they are sitting well in their stock buyback program.

The volatility was close to 100% and the volatility premium was near an all time high.

Regards,

Jim Kelley



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (196)11/15/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Gabriel008  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 335
 
PC Group Analysis - briefing.com

Brief
Industry has been on a tear over the past several weeks amid growing optimism that demand in the current holiday season will be strong... Virtually all evidence from corporate front is supporting this view... For example, Dell posted another strong quarter with top and bottom line growth exceeding 50%; Intel guided Q4 estimates higher amid signs of strong demand; and CompUSA noted that iMac sales strongest ever... Corporate sales also remain solid, easing fears that corporate America is cutting back on capital spending.

Throughout this period we have advised caution due to worldwide economic slowdown... It was, and is, our contention that the sharp jump in the number of layoffs on the domestic scene will result in a more tepid retail season than currently forecasted... But right now market psychology is bullish and it wants no part of "bad" news... And based on the anecdotal evidence of strength, and the sharp gains posted by the stocks, we can't blame investors for being optimistic.

However, before jumping into any of the stocks we recommend doing a little comparison shopping - after all it is the season. In the table below we take a look at how the stocks measure up on a value basis:

Stock 11/13 close FY99 Est P/E PEG P/S (TTM) Average Sales Growth (Past 8 qtrs)
Apple (AAPL) 35 11/16 15.2x 1.23 1.1x -21.3%
Compaq (CPQ) 33 7/16 19.0 0.97 2.0 15.6
Dell (DELL) 63 15/16 44.7* 1.51 5.8 56.3
Gateway (GTW) 52 3/4 18.9 0.88 1.2 22.8
Hewlett-Packard (HWP) 65 1/4 19.2 1.25 1.5 11.9
IBM (IBM) 157 7/16 21.0 1.55 1.8 3.7
Micron Electronics (MUEI) 22 5/8 24.6 1.07 1.2 1.0

Based on these figures, Dell and Gateway remain the two best buys in the group... Much was made Friday of Dell's relatively high p/s ratio but compare sales growth rates and the stock is "cheap" relative to IBM, MUEI, AAPL... Gateway simply scores the best across the board and would be our top choice based on value... CPQ also seems slightly undervalued at current prices... IBM clearly is overpriced relative to its peers and Apple needs to show it can grow revenues (company has posted yr/yr sales declines in each of its last eight quarters) before we want any part of it... Micron and Hewlett appear to be fairly valued near current levels.