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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2245)	10/24/1998 7:28:00 PM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

Problem or opportunity? I see two bottles of wine in my future, but are they coming or going remains to be seen. Your SAP short is fine. I originally thought SEBL would bottom out around $22 when I put it on my shorts list at $32. Then it crashed through that with gusto, proving that there aren't any sacred prices between the mid-teens and $22. If nothing is sacred, then $10 is as good as $16. If we get another bone shaking, as I believe we will between now and Christmas, SEBL won't be exempt. However, if Greenspan cuts rates for Thanksgiving instead of Christmas, I'll be supplying the wine for your salad and turkey. ttf

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2245)	10/24/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

I thought you were having a hard time finding Sap to short? That in itself is interesting. I dint have any problem finding Sap to short in the 50s and high 40s. Michelle

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2245)	10/25/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 6974

Melissa, I'm not sure who you're wanting to bet, me or ttf. :) If it's me, you're on. If I lose, I'll not only pay up but publicly toast the two of you here in cyberspace. >>I think the best short candidates out of that group are the ones that are blaming their slowing growth on Y2K issues vs. saturation because they are using that as an excuse. << That being the case, most any software company is a good short candidate. I agree that management of very few companies are being forthright about that. Since most of the software companies don't have a four-letter word, Asia, to use as their excuse, they use the handiest three-letter word, Y2K. --Mike Buckley

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2245)	10/26/1998 9:45:00 AM
From: eRM Solutions	Respond to of 6974

Michelle, I couldn't have said it better. All of these companies are being treated as a group. Take a look at the trade logs, most of all the selling is in small blocks while a lot of large block buys came in the last week. 50% of the company is owned by Institutions(don't flame me if I not 100% accurate) while Siebel himself owns most of the rest.If you are a fund manager looking to make a profit for 1999, were to you put your $ in a high growth stock, in a high growth sector, no longer trading at sky high levels. There is so much upside to Siebel it is ridiculous. They will finish 99 at $600 mm or better. So, what is the price to sales ratio for 99? Less than 1.5 x revenue. This doom and gloom talk is crazy. One question, TTF are you short SEBL? JMO, John