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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (2256)	10/24/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: treetopflier	Respond to of 6974

The 20 second analysis... Take IT budgets that are expected to remain flat or decline. Allocate nearly 1/2 of that to something that isn't really productive in its own right. Combine that with recessionary pressures that will further squeeze IT budgets in 1999 and lengthen sales cycles while everyone is forced to rejustify plans in the face of cuts. Now toss in competitive price pressures as these companies try to shorten the sales cycles and move the buyers off the dime and you get a tough year. I think Y2K has two primary impacts on license revenues of products like these. First, IT organizations have difficulty getting budget. Second, IT management wants as clean a project slate as possible since they really aren't a sure of what Y2K will bring as they tell you. How many enterprise wide projects would you want to have underway or nearing implementation on 1/1/2000? It isn't just a budget issue. My Scopus comment was in regards to a discuss I had with the project leader at GE who told me that Scopus was going to use COM/DCOM first. Far as I know, COM/DCOM is proprietary to MSFT and isn't the principal communications method endorsed by the Javasoft consortium. Given that, is it where you'd put your eggs? Of course, that conversation occurred 6 months ago and things likely have changed. ttf