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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (31106)	10/25/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

diana g; great point here... <<Some think any move up in OS without higher crude price is doomed to retrace. I don't think that's so. I think Price is an artifact of Demand/Supply. The Perception of Increased Future Demand will bring prosperity to the sector, IMHO. >> ***************************************************************************** ...I should have prefaced or qualified my thoughts here; by adding that if we had moved slowly to current levels, and if Crude Oil was where it was in September and behaving like it wanted to move upward, I would love these stocks at these current price levels and would not fear their re-tracing, based on exactly what you are saying - ie: << ''The Perception of Increased Future Demand will bring prosperity to the sector''>> * This is a great point diana g; this is why we are not overpriced ''fundamentally'' but we are technically. Just too far too fast, way ahead of the fundamental catalysts of improved Crude prices, drawn down supply levels, Increased Dayrates & Rig Utilization which of course leads to growing earnings... I think many bought on what the Fed Rate Cut and coordinated International Rate Cuts and Liquidity Stiumulus would do for the ''demand'' problem with Crude Oil Internationally. The Fed Cuts certainly raised the positive expectation bar higher and closer imho. But we still came too far too fast imho, and I feel we will re-trace here; but NOT to new lows. In no way shape or form are RON RIG or FGII overpriced longterm, so buying & holding here for the longterm is fine. Just from a ''trading'' standpoint; anytime we've gotten ahead of ourselves here; the Street has punished us unmercifully on any rallies unsustained by positive fundamentals - and I don't see any improved fundamentals on the immediate short-term horizon. I think we may see a substantial re-tracement due to the Mo-Mo money leaving as we top out here, and the shorts WILL pile on and we will get the final wave of tax loss selling here as well. I think that the Mo-Mo Fund money flowing here of late is from ''Renters'' - not ''Owners'' of the Oilpatch. It is short term funny-money wanting to not miss the Rally upside, more than it is, of a permanent buy & hold ownership stake in great companies in an oversold sector with substantial upside... this is ''flight'' money imho. Here today & gone tomorrow... another reason why I expect a decent retracement here. My comments and my reasons for ''trading here; and taking profits off of this top; are simply that when the Street gives you Lemons - Make Lemonade.... When they make it a volatile trading range enviroment - trade it. Anticipate what ''game'' the street is playing; know the boundries (bottoms & tops) and anticipate their moves... Imho, it is not as hard here as it seems. One thing I like here is that not only have the huge 1-2 day sell offs, led to extrememly profitable ''bounce'' plays, but now the ''laggard'' game is here. When stocks like MAVK start getting 25% 1 day pops, we have another ''game'' to play. I think we have a few more days ot ''top'' trading here and that the laggards will get bought heavilly as they are still ''cheap'' when compared to RIG RON etc. and the move that they had. Hence - identifying laggards like MAVK on these Rallys & trading them is a solid play. One other observation that others may share ? I am 100% convinced, that there are only a very, very small handfull of analysts and fund managers (including the so-called Energy Specialists) who really ''know'' the sector and the vast array of companies here in the Oilpatch. I've seen, read, watched and spoken to a few who DO NOT have anything other than a cursory overview, working knowledge of the individual companies in the Oilpatch. Sure, they know RIG and its longterm ''locked-in'' earnings contracts, they know RON, WFT etc. they know to jump on board when crude moves, but they do not know the smaller companies, or the sub-sectors like the speciality manufactures or niche players... These are tremendous opportunities in an oversold enviroment. Do your research and buy some of these undervalued small caps. We have an advantage here in these small emerging companies... good luck

To: diana g who wrote (31106)	10/25/1998 2:15:00 AM
From: articwarrior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

When a stone is thrown into a pond its ripples are sent throughout the whole pond. Those looking for much more upside without the oil supply / demand balance are in for some shocking surprises. Economic fundamentals rule in this industry. The prices we all bought in at the last three weeks was very good and a double bottom would imply a recovery. Don't think that the double bottom doesn't mean a further downturn or a classic BEAR trap. The wheat has grown and the harvest good. Enjoy this small bounty and reap the benefits by at the very least taking some profit from your holdings. If the sector is turning around and shoots straight up from here then you will still be invested. If the sector takes a correction from its recent run-up then you can enjoy the benefits of buying in at a lower price with your profits. May you reap the rewards of intelligent investing OH YEAH JMHO....