To: jjs_ynot who wrote (56277 ) 10/25/1998 8:27:00 AM From: donald sew Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 58727
INDEX UPDATE ----------------- As mentioned earlier, the DOW is forming a DESCENDING TRIANGLE, which is very clear on a 60 min chart. The APEX is around 8425 so a significant break to the downside (50 points) would imply further down. I have been hearing alot from the media on how well the market internals have improved. Yes, they have improved, but on a relative basis not enough to be able to say that we are back in a mid/longer-term uptrend. The ADVANCE/DECLINE line is diverging; just not improving at the same pace as the market, which is clearly shown on the DECISION POINT CHARTS linked here yesterday. The NEW LOWs have improved significantly, but the NEW HIGHs seem anemic, since it could not get over 100 with a 1200 rise in the DOW to 8650. Although, the RUT and TRAN and NAZ were strong during this runup, they are still below important peaks, as many other indexes are. If they dont break thru their previous peak before heading down, then this cycle would still be one of LOWER LOW/LOWER HIGHs. Since my short-term indicators are in the middle (57) for the DOW already, the downside is only 2-4 days (150-400 points per mathematical calculations). So if the market does dip more the bottom of this short-term cycle should arrive WED/THU/FRI. The next strong supports are at 8320 and 8180(intraday highs in SEPT). If the DOW breaks 8300 significantly, the chances for it to set a higher high for the next upswing will be reduced. If 8300 holds then there is still a chance that the next upswing could take us above 8650, but not by much. The next upswing will be playable as long as the DOW does get to the 8300-8200 range, but does not break 8000(do not think it will). If the market does not sell off some more then the next upswing may not be that playable. I wonder if we are forming another STAIRSTEP in the 8700-8300 range, similar to that of the STAIRSTEP in AUG. Just a guess, maybe another STAIRSTEP until the FOMC meeting on NOV 17(please correct my date if wrong). On a subjective basis, I am not as convinced as so many others are that the FEDs will reduce rates specificly in NOV. I am convinced that at 8400-8600+, the NOV rate cut is already priced in. We have also had quite a few good earnings on reduced expectation, but earnings will be over soon so where will the good news come from to push the market alot higher. Most of ASIA and other damaged overseas markets have already rebounded nicely, so that should already been incorporated into the market. With the image that the Asian/damaged markets are recovering and that they are much lower than our markets on a relative basis, is it possible that the flight to safety into the U.S. BOND market will be strongly reduced and outflows of funds back to the ASIAN markets. If funds continue to outflow from the U.S.BOND market will the interest rates rise some more, keeping in mind that the RATEs already approached 5.20% from 4.69% in 13 days. So tie this in with the possibility that the FEDs do not decrease rates in NOV. Again, I am not saying a retest of 7400, but what other good news will there be to push the market alot higher. I also heard that FIRST CALL is saying that this should be the 1st quarter of negative earnings for the S&P. Will the next quarter still be negative? Seeya