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To: goldsnow who wrote (22240)	10/25/1998 9:13:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Greenspan article economist.com

To: goldsnow who wrote (22240)	10/25/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

From gold-eagle.com: DR. YARDINI CALLS A 1973-74 TYPE RECESSION (vronsky) Oct 21, 10:25 MotherGoose: Many thx for the URL of the Yardeni article. FYI in reference to the 1973/74 Stock market Crash: One of the world's leading economists, Edward Yardeni, chief economist with Deutsche Bank Securities, said: The Year 2000 problem threatens to push us into a global recession as severe as the one that occurred in 1973-1974." Dr.Yardeni said U.S. bonds, interest rates and stock prices would plummet in a Year 2000, or Y2K, recession. Stocks could fall 30 percent but would then rebound in 2001 as companies climbed back from the temporary choke hold on the flow of information." What Happened During the "SECOND" Great Market Crash (1973/1974)? From the market high in 1973 to its low in 1974 the DJIA and the S&P 500 lost almost half their value - while the previously high-flying technology stocks plummeted more than 60%. Enough to cause heart-failure to the credulous believers of THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. Even the relatively "safe" utilities were decimated - as they dropped more than 50% from their 1973 high to their nadir in 1974. H-O-W-E-V-E-R, students of financial history took profitable refuge in gold metal stocks. The Gold Mining Index, composed of ASA, Campbell Red Lake and Dome Mining, appreciated more than 267% from its 1973 low (40) to its 1974 high (147). This merits being redundant. During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost QUADRUPLED. The over-riding guideline of my precious metals' research was aptly described by one of Wall Street's legendary wizards, Bernard Baruch - unfortunately, unknown to most of today's investment Pollyannas. His observation still rings with logic and clarity: "Gold has worked down from Alexander's time..... When something holds good for two thousand years, I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory." Many at Kitco have already read a historical study we made some time ago, but a few have not yet seen it. In light of the building Bear market in Wall Street and the looming MILLENNIUM MENACE, it is indeed worth everyone's attention. GOLD STOCKS AND THE GREAT CRASH OF 1929 (AND 1973/74) - REVISITED It will be necessary to delete the extra letters "en" of the word "golden" before pasting the URL to the Internet: gold-eagle.com gold-eagle.com