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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert J. Partridge who wrote (32371)	10/25/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Robert, EXCELLENT QUESTION. And it comes just after I have reviewed Barron's and done my due-diligence for the weekend. Suddenly, this convert bull is having some second thoughts: - BRKA does not like the way things are right now and as Jim taught me, how goes BRKA, so goes the markets; - The bull to bear count in the Market Watch section is 7 to 3... kinda lopsided for a market just pulling out of a 20% + sell-off; - We are on a pre-sell watch per VIX; - My Utility vs Dow timer shows a major sell-off possible in early November; I could go on further to other insecurities... A really interesting indicator I am looking at involving the DOW Industrials and Transports as well as the Zwieg bread thrust says we will NOT go up on Monday... short term indicator! BWDIK? Bill

To: Robert J. Partridge who wrote (32371)	10/25/1998 12:48:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 94695

Except that Uncle Al is somewhat more handicapped than Hong Kong and Japan.... they have foreign currency reserves to spend directly on the stock mkt to support it outright (the Fed can't do this by law, plus they don't have the reserves to do it anyway... all they can do is print money.) They (Japan and HK) can defend their currencies after interest rate cuts or simply don't depend on huge amounts of foreign investment. They have a trade surplus (gives them a bright future of foreign reserves). We have none of those things. We are a net debtor nation w/ a record trade imbalance and little or no foreign currency reserves. Foreigners finance this country by holding onto our debt and allowing us to spend our money on consumption and stock mkt investments. Much like he who lives on a credit card... eventually the fun ends andd the piper must be paid. If Uncle Al lowers rates too far, the dollar will be shredded (this has already started) and the bond mkt will go w/ it.... and the stock mkt will soon follow. Al is sccrewed if he does... screwed if he don't. checkmate. -Lucretius

To: Robert J. Partridge who wrote (32371)	10/25/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Robert I am in agreement with this assesment. <<<<Another implication if this was a premeditated intervention is that the Fed has declared war on the bears. Japan and Hong Kong did it openly. The citadel of free markets cannot be so brazen, but those six bullets will be saved until they can do the most damage to speculative bears.>>> and is reflected in this bit of news Saturday October 24, 11:50 pm Eastern Time U.S. Fed favours indirect influence on hedge funds biz.yahoo.com which by itself is wrong and reflects dual standarts BWDIK Haim