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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David R. Schaller who wrote (22247)	10/25/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Sergio R. Mejia	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

"markets could drift sideways for several years" "..bullish on the oil and gold stocks..." Hard work needed for gains in this cycle The Getting Technical - By Bill Carrigan October 25, 1998 Stock markets are going through a transition that investors must face with a strategy that hasn't been seen since the 1970s. The markets are in a transition from a long-term uptrend to a long-term sideways trading range - some ups, some downs, but definitely sideways. This congestion could last for many years and equity investors should be prepared to change their investment strategy. Some recent history is instructive. The long uptrend in North American stocks - called secular trends because of their length - began in 1982 and saw most stock groups post increases. The index funds were the place to be during this broad advance where buy-and-hold was a leading strategy. The recent bear market has broken the back of this secular uptrend. The evidence was amply illustrated when such market leaders as Northern Telecom Inc. and General Electric Corp. broke down through their rising trend lines or trading floor. The collapse of financial services stocks like Merrill Lynch and Trimark Financial was also not a good omen for the buy-and-hold style of investing. In short, welcome to the new equity market: the secular downtrend. A secular downtrend does not mean the markets will collapse. It simply means the North American markets could drift sideways for several years. This means that investors must now be prepared to shorten their time frames when it comes to buying stocks or mutual funds because of a strategic change in the markets: they become trading markets, as opposed to buy-and-hold markets. The last trading markets dominated from 1968 to 1981. During such periods, the major indexes traded sideways for 12 to 16 years. Stock market rotation becomes a dominant factor during these periods. In simple terms, rotation is a series of individual stock group advances and declines that recur in succession. For example, the TSE 300 index would move sideways as the upward movement of one stock group is offset by the downward movement of another stock group. In other words, a falling bank group could be neutralized by a rising metal and oil group. Getting the rotation right for investment purposes will be the key to success in these new stock markets. To illustrate the contrast, the previous secular uptrend required no brains at all to be a winner. This new market will be different in that some critical thinking will be required for success or even survival. Knowledge will be key. Investors will need more information and they ought to use any system or methodology that may improve their chances. Every week I receive research material from various stock brokers. In my opinion, the research material today has never been better. This information will be of great value during this new market period. For example, Trend And Cycle (RBC Dominion Securities) provides good direction. I also received an October, 1998, booklet, Reflation Or Deflation: The Battle Of Economic Forces, from Scotia Capital Markets. This quantitative study is rich in information on the effects of stock market rotation from 1956 to date. The latter study revealed a trend worth noting: there are long periods of stock group out-performance and under-performance (rotation). Currently, the average period of a stock group, such as the TSE oil and gas index, to outperform is about 12 months. About 20 years ago, the average period of outperformance was 20 months. As an investor you should understand the various market cycles are getting shorter. Bear markets used to last from nine to 16 months. We have had two recent bear markets that lasted only four months. These shorter cycles will mean investors will have to trade more to produce good returns and reduce risk. For example, I am currently bullish on the oil and gold stocks. The current new bull oil cycle may be short-lived, perhaps through to November, 1999. The recent gold rally is having a normal pullback and should then outperform to mid 1999. ------------------- Bill Carrigan is an independent stock market analyst. His Getting Technical appears each Sunday. He can be reached by E-mail at carrigan@vaxxine.com

To: David R. Schaller who wrote (22247)	10/25/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116753

Gold festival from November 1 F.P. Bureau Report KARACHI -Elaborate planning is in the offing for the first-ever gold festival being held in Karachi from November 1 to 30. More than 60 jewellers are taking part in the month-long festival which is expected to draw a large number of gold jewellery shoppers. The festival is being organised by the World Gold Council in collaboration with and co-sponsorship of some of the leading jewellers of the city, namely, A.K. Motiwala, Almas Gems and Jewellers and Essa Jewellers. The participating jewellers are located mostly in the areas of Saddar, Tariq Road and Haidry. More and more jewellers are registering everyday for the big event. The jewellers will be supplied with 500 coupons each, initially, by the WGC. Any shopper, who makes a purchase of Rs 5,000 or more of gold jewellery will be entitled to a coupon for the lucky draw of one kilo of gold as the top prize, which will be held every week throughout the month of November. frontierpost.com.pk