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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2808)	10/25/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 3696

Mr. GJ: Excellent analysis on the positive side. New products are key. Poletrimming, Ultrabeam, and, most importantly, P-Gild. Re: "Art Z., during the conference call, stated that the 4th quarter and early 1999 quarters would show strength. I will be watching. With the cost reductions over there and the layoffs earnings should improve and not get worse. If they worsen that would be a negative." He stated this last cc and was incorrect. Strength is relative. Earnings sucked this past quarter and so most any improvement would be strength relative to this past quarter. Did he provide sales guidance at all? Did he say single digit sequential growth in revenues or something to that effect or did he just say "strength?" Maybe he said something in the Q & A? I will never know. Re: "Art also stated that 10-20 companies were interested in the new technology and that the technology was surpassing and exceeding what was expected (whatever that means). I take this to mean that their will be 10 to 15 firm orders for their new technology within the next 3 quarters. If not someone else will be holding my shares." Art has maintained that companies have been kicking the tires on Ultrabeam and P-Gild for as long as I can remember. I would not assume that 10 to 15 companies will be ordering units unless they are in the backlog. And they are not to my knowledge. Re: " Art also stated that the sales force was optimistic going forward for the same period. I take this to mean demand is increasing and new orders await." Well, that is a good sign. I would not make any assumption re demand and orders. Re: " Obviously, no one holds this company based on earnings. One is holding the company in the hopes their new products will take off and gain acceptance in the marketplace. Art has raised the bar during the conference call...or maybe I am becoming so impatient I am hearing things. He sounded so optimistic during the conference call to the point where it sounded as if he wanted to give specifics but could not. This could be the reality or it could be a public relations con job." You are correct in your thinking on holding this company. Art is an optimistic kind of guy IMO. I have had the same impression you have had in the past. I have no empirical evidence to suggest that his optimism is well founded. Conference call Q & A would sure help. But quite frankly, I would be embarrassed and humbled with the last quarter's performance relative to guidance. I was disappointed that I heard none of that conveyed in Art Z's tone or statements. He addressed the listeners to the cc as if this guidance never happened. Optimism is one thing. Denial and arrogance are quite another. Again, I am dealing with impressions and I have no Q & A to go on. Re: "Any Comments? Is my patience wearing thin??" There are too many companies out there that do not have these problems that I have outlined and their valuations are just as reasonable if not more reasonable than UTEK and with the same prospects. I sold 75% of my UTEK at $22.5 and put the proceeds into other companies in this sector. UTEK may be a fine company but I do not have a good feel for it at this time because Art Z's guidance has proven unreliable. It is not a favorite holding of mine in this sector especially at its current valuation. My impression is that the stock is being held up by a ton of shorts who are wondering why this company does so well when its earnings and guidance suck relative to other companies in this sector and, on the other side, by a bunch of individuals who don't know what they have or cannot make up their mind whether to sell or not. I am 25% in the latter camp now.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2808)	10/25/1998 7:31:00 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3696

MrGreenJeans, <<Art also stated that 10-20 companies were interested in the new technology and that the technology was surpassing and exceeding what was expected (whatever that means).>> I listened carefully and thought Art said "10-20 worldwide companies." Maybe this is an insignificant point. Why would he specify on this point? Also, AZ said the ubeam at plab was operating in a superb fashion and exceeding all specs. Rgds, D

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2808)	10/27/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Nevada	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3696

I posted the following on Mr. Pinks- obviously the wrong place. I am short the stock, but am not emotionally committed to my position. The following analysis coupled with what you all know about the veracity and ability of the management should give us a profit opportunity on one side or the other. Take a strong look at UTEK financials. Average collection period has decreased from 147.71 days to 89.06 days. Average days sales in inventory has gone from 314.65 days to 380.9 days. Drop in collection period could be due to the write off of some of the receivables. Write off in inventory would seem to be next. How quick does their product become obsolete? What are they currently manufacturing, given that they already have a years sales in stock? (Obviously the inventory turn calculation assumes a homogeneous inventory which is not the case. But they still seems to be a lot of inventory there!) The positive for the company is that they have lots of cash to burn and no debt to speak of.