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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Typhoon who wrote (1105)	10/26/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Hard to believe anyone expected this. The results topped every forecast. Some Finnish newspaper said that industry "experts" are now scared that this kind of growth can't last. Well, duh. Since 94% growth wasn't priced in this stock at any point, why should it worry people that it can't be maintained? If my memort serves, the Merryl Lynch growth forecast for Nokia was below 15%. Nokia zoomed from 9% growth in handsets to 94% in three quarters. It seems that many investors are now expecting that Motorola and Ericsson will do the same. This is something I don't understand about Friday: I thought Nokia's results were a disaster for Ericsson and Motorola and they actually benefited. But it's not like a new phone platform is an automatic guarantee for a 9% - 94% performance improvement. These numbers were produced by 5 ounce phones with 5 lines of text in displays, 8 days of standby time and a good user interface. Sold for 200 bucks in the States. I have seen no evidence that Motorola and Ericsson are coming up with anything like this price/performance ratio. In any case, this quarter was a comparison with a relatively robust 3Q -97. The next quarter will be compared with 4Q -97, possibly the weakest sales growth quarter in this decade for Nokia. There should be no reason why the phone growth couldn't top 100% then. I suppose the pundits will then complain that this 100% growth simply cannot last. Maybe Nokia needs to show that they can outsell new Mot and Ericy models before they get any respect. That would be a 2Q -99 showdown. I'm now in USA and I can't belive the news blackout on Nokia's results. It must be orchestrated by the Trade Department. It's kind of like visiting Leningrad in -88 when the newspapers would print the Florence Griffith Joyner sprint times, but wouldn't comment them in any way. Tero