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To: Zardoz who wrote (22259)	10/25/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Dollar Rises For Fifth Day Against Yen on Gloomy Outlook for Japan's Banks Dollar Rises vs Yen on Grim Outlook for Japanese Banks Tokyo, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose for a fifth- straight day against the yen amid a gloomy outlook for Japan's weakened banking system and stagnant economy, traders said. The Japanese government Friday took over troubled Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan Ltd. and Moody's Investors Service said it may cut the ratings of four major Japanese banks. ''Under such circumstances, it would be reasonable to think the dollar will regain more ground against the yen,'' said Hiroshi Sakuma, a foreign exchange manager at Barclays Bank Plc. The dollar was quoted at 118.45 yen, up from 118.07 yen in late New York trading Friday. It was quoted at 1.6435 marks, up from 1.6391 marks in New York. The U.S. rating agency said Friday it's reviewing the ''A1'' rating of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi on concern economic conditions in Japan and the rest of Asia are worsening. It also placed the ratings of Sanwa Bank Ltd., Industrial Bank of Japan Ltd. and Sumitomo Bank Ltd. under review. Japanese banks are saddled with problem loans of at least 77 trillion yen ($647 billion), making them reluctant to lend companies and undermining prospects for an economic recovery. In a bid to boost ailing banks, Japan's parliament on Oct. 16 approved a 60 trillion-yen bailout package, which went into effect Friday, and the LTCB became the nation's first bank to be nationalized. The nationalization ''is a reactive rather than a proactive step,'' said Eric Fishwik, an international economist at Nikko Europe in London. ''The government needs to have the power to step in at a far earlier stage'' to mend foundering banks. He expects the dollar to rise above 122 yen in coming weeks. Investing Abroad Since the dollar has plunged from the 136 yen level to 118 level this month, many Japanese individuals investors has aggressively bought dollars to take advantage of the dollar's dramatic decline, traders said. ''I've never seen so many individuals showing interest in dollar deposits,'' said Keinosuke Sakamoto, a branch manager at Citibank N.A. in Tokyo. ''Even housewives are coming to our bank, taking their friends along, to buy dollars.'' They aim to seek not only higher returns on dollar deposits but also to take gains on foreign exchange, he added. Dollar-denominated financial products are attractive because the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks is 5.0 percent, compared with Japan's discount rate of 0.5 percent. Even so, many analysts and traders said the dollar will unlikely to win back all of its losses it suffered this month because Japanese exporters who failed to convert their dollar profits into yen at above 130 yen may want to sell the dollar above 120 yen, said Barclays' Sakuma. He said the dollar will trade between 116.50 yen and 121.50 yen this week. In other trading, the dollar was quoted at 1.3433 Swiss francs, up from 1.3390 Swiss francs in late New York trading Friday. The British pound was quoted at $1.6855, down from $1.6876 in New York. The mark was quoted at 72.22 yen, up from 72.03 yen in New York. bloomberg.com

To: Zardoz who wrote (22259)	10/25/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Giraffe	Respond to of 116753

>>Hey Giraffe: where on this page does it say BULLISH?:<< Where??? How about here: - DMI is in bearish territory. However, a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upside move is possible. - The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Since the Ultimate Oscillator is in line with the underlying market, the current reading is neutral. The current trend should remain intact. However, a bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests a short term rally is possible. - The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Since Acc-Dis is in line with the underlying market, the current reading is neutral. The current trend should remain intact. However, a bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests a short term rally is possible. - Average True Range just reached an 18 bar low, offering some evidence that a bottom is forming here. -The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support. Confirming this, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low. - The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Since OBV is in line with the underlying market, the current reading is neutral. The current trend should remain intact. However, a bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here suggests a short term rally is possible. - The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook. -MACD is in bearish territory. However, the market just signaled a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low. - RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 46.01), suggesting a possible rally. Supporting this outlook, the bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upturn in the market. - (volume indicator) . A bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests an upmove, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of an upturn in the market. - Momentum is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook. - The [fast] stochastic is in oversold territory (FastK is at 6.54); this indicates a possible market rise is coming. The long term trend is UP. FastK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon. The short term trend is UP. FastK was up this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see an up move here. If the next bar's FastK is also up, then a possible bottom may have been established. - The [slow] stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 7.67); this indicates a possible market rise is coming. The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon. The bit you quoted referred specifically to moving averages - sometimes not the most reliable indicator. >>Quote: Additional Analysis - Short Term:The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. << The original page I cited - I'm not sure if its a continous contract or spot - was much more positive. I'm not sure why there's a divergence. Re. moving averages the 'weekly' analysis says: >> - The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is down from the previous bar, price is below the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. If so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity. Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average. Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: the slow moving average slope is down from the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. If so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity. << Its also worth noting that these indicators do tend to fluctuate a bit. So even though the DMI for example may have dipped into bearish territory you have to remember that it has spent months plowing its way up to the crossover line. If it happens to pause here it may not be terribly significant.