Hello Andrew
I have not done any home work of late so can not tell you if anything has changed with CAV management, share float, % of this play, etc, etc…
No one on this thread, as I am sure you have noticed, is prepared to sing the praises of CAV nor shall I. However, all things being equal, any purchase is not investing/speculating in CAV but rather in the prospect of their Yamba Lake claims and the expertise of SUF.
SUF's re-sampling of the major trains was completed more than a month or so back and these are being screened and analyzed. SUF look at a much smaller fraction than did CAV's exploration managers, and their sampling frequency is 10 per kilometer, not 1. Needless to say the accuracy of what SUF can achieve is far superior to what has been done to date.
What is also encouraging to me, is that SUF would not have bothered with these claims if they did not like what they saw. I know they liked the sampling/geochemical train map, gravity, geology, location and remote sensing data, and can only assume, that they were similarly swayed by the G-10 plots, Chromite probes, and physical appearance of the larger indicators. I reviewed CAV's sampling/geochemical train gravity and geological maps a few years ago, and I can tell you that they are certainly intriguing, even exciting.
What is not clear as yet is whether SUF's sampling and probing has essentially confirmed the data provided by CAV in advance of SUF optioning these claims. When or if SUF do confirm the prospectivity of these claims by indicating that they will be flying and or drilling them (doing further detailed work), then I will consider investing in CAV, assuming the company is in good standing and there has not been further dilution. But until then, CAV, MIY and Tanqeray remain only speculation possibilities in so far as these claims and I am concerned. SUF is certainly the safer (blue chip) investment.
I appreciate the CAV price is very attractive, but there is no guarantee that SUF will pursue exploration as of yet. They are only doing their homework.
As we approach year end and I have a clearer picture of SUF's intentions, I may take a flyer at one or more of these three depending on which one has the lions share after dilution by share float. The nice thing about the other two plays is that they have a few other irons in the fire and in one case at least, a bit more in the bank last time I looked.
I also think it is fair to assume that all three will float new shares, options, etc, on any significant price appreciation, and longtime shareholders probably will use any appreciation to unload all the paper they have been holding. Bottom line, these will be volatile and probably will not spike to $20 on an initial pipe find. Rather I suspect they will swing wildly up and down with speculation, shorting, underwriting, etc. In short, (pardon the pun), a trader's dream.
One thing that can be guaranteed, there is absolutely no way that SUF will provide discovery news to the principals of these plays any sooner than the market knows about it. Progress info will be released to them periodically, as juniors of this ilk do like to prime the market with this stuff. However, this is totally inconsequential to SUF. One constancy can be relied upon in this regard, absolutely no real news will ever, EVER be leaked. That is an SUF hallmark and you can bank on it.
Long time shareholders of CAV can call this a “dog” and “crap” and in many respects they may be correct. However, they are speaking with their hearts, out of frustration and anger. A more dispassionate analysis suggests that the down side of $0.04 is limited, and the upside can reasonably be assumed to be a significant multiple.
No one, other than the principals, will retire from this play, but, assuming all the ducks line up as I have suggested above, it should prove to be an interesting speculation in 1999.
Regards
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