To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9184 ) 10/27/1998 1:24:00 PM From: Steve Fancy Respond to of 22640
US debt analysts say Brazil devaluation unlikely Reuters, Tuesday, October 27, 1998 at 13:04 By Hugh Bronstein NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Rumors circulating in financial markets that Brazil would devalue its currency, the real, by 10 to 20 percent seemed unfounded, U.S.-based emerging market debt analysts said on Tuesday. Talk that Brazil might effectively devalue by widening the real's trading band hurt emerging market debt prices on Tuesday morning, traders said. Benchmark Brazil C bonds <BRAZILC=RR> were down about one point midday Tuesday to bid 62-1/4. "We think the rumors may have been started by investors who had taken short positions in the market that would benefit from the market moving down," said Esteban Medrano, an emerging debt analyst at I.D.E.A, an economic research firm that provides data to commercial and central banks. Medrano said the devaluation rumors were first heard by foreign exchange traders dealing in Mexican pesos. "It's unlikely that the Brazilian authorities would move its exchange rate because that would be contrary to what the government's stance has been throughout the crisis," Medrano said. Investors have fled emerging markets in the weeks since Russia defaulted on its debt and devalued the rouble in August. One of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso key priorities over the last several years has been the stability of Brazil's currency. He was expected later Tuesday to announce a fiscal reform program designed to close the country's gaping budget deficit and secure a loan package from the International Monetary Fund. The program will not include changes to the country's foreign exchange policy, a director at Brazil's central bank said on Tuesday. "There is no possibility of changes in foreign exchange policy," Demosthenes Madureira de Pinho Neto, the bank's director of international affairs, said in a statement. The strongest argument against a devaluation is that such a move would be difficult to control in the current market environment, said Siobhan Manning, Latin American debt strategist at PaineWebber. "Investor sentiment is only starting to show signs of recovery in Brazil," she added. "A devaluation would inject more uncertainty and interest rates would have to be increased, which would increase the country's fiscal deficit." Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service