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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25768)	10/27/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: yousef hashmi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

DOW JONES 90-DAY NEWS/RETRIEVAL Int'l News & Research Services Sequence Number : 9 Story Date : 98/10/27 1 00:04 T Global Semiconductor Mkt Starting To Recover - Industry Body TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Global semiconductor market sales are beginning to recover, helped by continued growth in personal computers and the development of technologies such as networking, according to an industry association. After shrinking 9.0% from the previous quarter in the first quarter of 1998 and 5.6% in the second, the global market is estimated to have grown 2.0% in the third quarter and forecast to expand 3.2% in the fourth, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) association. The association groups semiconductor companies from around the world. Its forecast was released Tuesday by the Electronic Industries Association of Japan. For all of 1998, the global market is forecast to shrink 10.9% to $122.2 billion after 4.0% growth in 1997, but to expand 6.6% in 1999, 13.6% in 2000 and 16.2% in 2001. The WSTS assumes an average dollar-yen rate of Y135.5 this year and Y139.5 for subsequent years, compared with Y121.0 last year. It estimates that Japan's semiconductor market will shrink 13.3% to Y3.4 trillion in 1998 after growing 4.4% last year. It will expand 3.8% in 1999, 8.7% in 2000 and 11.6% in 2001, the WSTS predicts. The WSTS forecasts the North American market will shrink 11.0% this year after 7.4% growth in 1997, but then expand 7.0% next year, 14.4% in 2000 and 16.4% in 2001. The European market is seen shrinking 0.2% in 1998 after 16.8% growth last year, and then growing 6.5% in 1999, 14.3% in 2000 and 16.1% in 2001. (END) DOW JONES NEWS 10-27-98 12:04 AM

To: Gottfried who wrote (25768)	10/27/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried: Thanks for the numbers. I never cease to be amazed by this sector. Witnesseth: ABN and Van Kasper seem to have ignored the 4Q charges. I guess that charges "don't count" when they're pushing upgrades and (possibly) liquidating their portfolios for FY end. Do the rules change when they switch their positions? <ggg> On a less cynical and more professional note: 1. The ominous thing about deemphasizing these charges is, of course, the opportunity to massage bad operating numbers into them. Nothing nefarious, just good business practice. But if we "ignore" the charges, we certainly will have an interesting time w/ the white rabbit as we stare thru the looking glass. Fails my reality check. 2. They've reduced '99 while maintaining '98 as high as they can. If we are paying for future PE's and have already factored in present and past performance, then how do we justify these multiples? If you accept Van Kasper's numbers @ face value: Calendar EPS Summaries Current Fiscal Year EPS Summaries 4Q Ago EPS: $0.47 Actual Est 3Q Ago EPS: $0.60 Q1 EPS: $0.60 Jan-98 2Q Ago EPS $0.37 Q2 EPS: $0.37 Apr-98 Last Q EPS: $0.13 Q3 EPS: $0.13 Jul-98 Present Q EPS* ($0.01) Q4 EPS: * ($0.01) Oct-98 * (estimated) "Running" EPS $1.25 YTY EPS Growth Rate -13% "Running" PE 27.2 Current FY EPS $1.09 YTY EPS Growth Rate -53% Current FY PE 31.2 Next FY EPS $0.51 Next FY PE 66.7 Future PE approaching 70 and I don't think that we're done w/ downward revisions. Boy, it sure would be nice to have a 4Q earnings consensus on this thread and a discussion about how to factor in the charges. <ggg> Regards, BP