To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (22319 ) 10/28/1998 10:43:00 PM From: Alex Respond to of 116753
Greenspan's magic bullet won't keep bears at bay ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Larry Kase Madness. There is no other way to describe the giddy behavior in the Street during the past several days. The Greenspan Gang appears to be off-loading tons of excess speculation on the soon-to-be-needy-greedy who believe that a quarter point cut in the discount rate is a "magic bullet" that kills all bears in a fashion similar to the silver bullet capable of vanquishing werewolves. (Unfortunately, the werewolves became wise to the bullet gig centuries ago. Information from highly reliable sources clearly indicates that the wolves recently offered their secrets of survival to the bears: Simply retreat into the caves awaiting the end of the hunting season.) The Greenspan bailout may be one of the most unconscionable financial acts of the past quarter century. The Federal Reserve and, for that matter, the entire USA may have largely forfeited the right to preach the free market gospel. Rather than allowing imprudent lenders to suffer the averse consequences of their reckless behavior, Mr. Greenspan rewarded them. Ironically, the bailout comes just as Congress weighs proposed changes in the personal bankruptcy process. Indeed, on the Sunday following the first Fed Funds rate cut, the New York Times noted the reform sponsors' enthusiasm for changes designed to teach people a lesson in prudence. And just who are among these fans of fiscal restraint and bankruptcy reform? Why, major lending institutions, of course. This all brings us back to the universal truth about lending money: If you borrow $10,000 and cannot pay it back, you have a problem. If you borrow $10 million and cannot pay it back, the lender has a problem. And now we are watching the corollary of that universal truth: If you lend $10,000 and cannot collect, you lose. If investment bankers and major banks lend $10 billion and cannot collect, the Federal Reserve pays back the loan. The Greenspan bailout does not correct any of the structural problems nagging the global economy. The speculative capacity and investment excesses have not been purged. Mr. Greenspan merely glued a cheap patch on a bad tire. And patches do not hold indefinitely. When the tire blows out again, it invariably will do so unexpectedly and at the most inopportune time. During the past several days, the Street riders are picking up speed again. It is unlikely that the equipment they are riding can safely handle the speed. © 1998, Orlando Business Journal amcity.com