To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1850 ) 10/27/1998 11:52:00 PM From: Lars Respond to of 15132
*** Market Article *** Tuesday, October 27, 1998 Fragile tech industry raises investor concerns Market Analysis Uncertainty surrounding the global economic picture remains high on the list of major concerns. The state of numerous technology industries - and the underlying strength associated with their individual stock price performance - is extremely fragile. At the heart of the technology industry is the semiconductor group. Specific issues to watch include excess capacity, further reductions in capital equipment spending, increased competition and falling prices. Despite the recent upgrades by several brokerage houses, the group has failed to lift off on the news. The rather timid pace at which money seems to be flowing, however, indicates that investors are just following higher share prices. Where were they when these stocks were drowning? Why now? The import/export balance is under increased scrutiny as a widening imbalance could cause consumers to curb spending further. Debating the timing of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut is inevitable. Yet the move is sure to fuel further global interest rate cuts, primarily in Europe, as evidenced by Italy's recent decision to lower rates. The cause for optimism is real, as similar actions by other European nations can't be far behind. Any economic collapse will be postponed for the time being, while fresh rate cuts keep investor sentiment high. Financial behemoth American Express (AXP) reported outstanding earnings for its fiscal third quarter. Wall Street was anticipating a good quarter, as the stock has enjoyed a nice run leading up to Monday's announcement. However, the business make-up of the quarter indicates that spending, at least by wealthy individuals and corporations that are typical users of American Express products, has shown no signs of stalling. The company reported significant growth in its card-member spending. Furthermore, clients purchasing shares of mutual funds outpaced redemptions for the quarter. On the move Aflac (AFL) reported third-quarter earnings of 39 cents, up from 35 cents last year. The health insurance company was expected to earn 37 cents for the quarter. *** Telecommunications equipment manufacturer World Access (WAXS) reported earnings of 32 cents a share for its fiscal third quarter. The company, which earned 22 cents last year, beat analysts' expectations of 30 cents. *** Stock Picks Portfolio The Russell 2000 gained more than 1 percent again today. Small caps clearly are coming back into favor, and I would strongly encourage you not to make the mistake of chasing the popular names. Unlike the safety and predictability of the large-cap stocks, what's hot in the small-cap group can just as quickly go out of favor. A case in point is the IT consulting group. While they all sold off within the first week after I added them to my portfolio, they all have regained most of their losses. Even with the impressive $1.50 gain Monday in shares of Cambridge Technology (CATP), the stock is trading at a mere 15 times next years $1.29 earnings estimate. Furthermore, analysts are expecting the company to grow its earnings by 40 percent annually. If the stock were to attract an earnings multiple of just half its expected earnings-growth rate, this would translate into a $26 share price. Look for more upside for CATP shares. Ideas and Trends Has the Bull Market returned? Many want to believe so and others don't, but there is no question that the money has rediscovered the Internet group. Investors pumped up the shares of eBay (EBAY) more than $20 in anticipation of today's earnings announcement. With the move, CEO Pierre Omidyar has joined the ranks of the Internet billionaires, as the web site has more than quadrupled its price since going public back in September. Acting as a middleman in the sale of everything from CDs to cars, eBay now claims more than one million accounts. Shares of other Internet stocks rode the coat tails of the eBay surge, as Yahoo! (YHOO), America Online (AOL) and Amazon (AMZN) all moved higher. Both AOL and AMZN will be reporting results later this week, so look for the group to continue higher near term. Reader ideas I've had numerous requests regarding some low-priced stock ideas. When I see these types of questions, it's usually a sign that investors are ready to throw more money at this market, looking for the big winner. I'll have a few bargain-priced ideas for readers tomorrow. Please be aware that small stocks generally are more volatile than the bigger boys!