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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CuttotheCore who wrote (9188)	10/27/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: DMaA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

I don't think anyone is predicting an expansion next year. Anyone know of any such prediction? Seems at least a small recession is inevitable. This should be significant support, but not sufficient to support a panic brought on by rumors of a Brazil recession, which I saw on a trading thread this am, by one suggesting a good play was to short Brazil.

To: CuttotheCore who wrote (9188)	10/27/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Thanks Stx, appreciate the effort. FWIW, I don't consider that I have ever been jubilant since the big fall...in fact quite the opposite. I actually anticipated a pullback after testing 80. To my way of thinking, we want to hold 73 to support a new trading range in the mid-seventies to low-eighties. In my note to you the other day, besides looking for any thoughts you had both short and longer term, I was actually trying to determine if we had a shot at the 200 DMA by year end. Shorting Brazil...could be. Has a history of selling off on good news...or a tendancy to twist and churn good news into bad news. I don't think it'll retest 49 (famous last words)...I'll be caught off guard but not totally surprised if it retests 65. I think this time it may be different. As the initial news sinks in and as the fiscal plans evolve, a general uptrend should result...all assuming that Asia remains stable of course. Oh, FWIW, I agree with David that a recession is expected...I also think it's built in...I think disaster is built in. As and if the world realizes disaster won't occur what's the upside? I'm thinking bovespa at 8500-9500 by year-end. Have you looked at the bovespa charts? Thanks again stx, please keep us updated. sf