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To: Carl Held who wrote (40411)	10/27/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: TREND1	Respond to of 53903

Carl You wrote <<How do you justify the price going from 20 1/16 to the current price in 2 1/2 weeks (71.9% increase)? Has anything changed that dramatically? This is a case of pure manipulation..... >> Now carl...all here on this Micron BB know the real reason MU went up over 70%....The same reason it went up over 70% after the Dec 16, 1997 earnings release..... ....JUST TO GIVE SKEETER AND THE FOREEVER BEARS A BAD TIME .......(g) Larry Dudash

To: Carl Held who wrote (40411)	10/27/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl Maybe some investors are looking ahead !!! Chip industry can expect double-digit growth by 2000, says IDC MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- The beginnings of a recovery in the latter half of the year won't be enough to salvage the semiconductor industry from a dismal 1998, according to International Data Corp. here. The market researcher estimates the chip market will decline by 9.2% in 1998, to $124.6 billion. Expect things to start getting better, however. Growth in 1999 will be a moderate 8.0%, driven by cutbacks in capacity and capital spending, and combined with second-half investments in new equipment to resolve the Year 2000 problem, the company said. This should start returing the semiconductor market to double digit growth by the year 2000. By 2003, IDC expects the total semiconductor market will reach $232 billion. According to IDC's report, "Semiconductor Market Forecast and Review, 1998-2003," the memory market's three-year recession will not be over until the second half of 1999, when supply and demand come into balance and prices stabilize. Total memory revenue is expected to grow by a modest 5.5% in 1999 to $22.9 billion after a decline of 26.0% in 1998. Healthy bit growth of 60%, major capacity cutbacks, a market exodus by major players like Texas Instruments Inc. and mega-mergers by Korean DRAM suppliers, combined with a gradual increase in DRAM pricing by the second half of 1999, will help drive DRAM revenues up almost 7% to $13.8 billion in 1999 Back in March, IDC had forecast 1999 market growth at 16.5%. "With recovery or improvement in Asia and Japan not expected to start until the second half of 1999, we cannot expect to see double-digit growth for the semiconductor market next year," said Mario Morales, IDC's research director for semiconductors. "The brunt of the decline has been felt in those two regions, but a strong dollar and slowing export growth and demand for the U.S. market are indications that the Asian problems will begin to affect the United States," Morales said. Because the situation is uncertain, "we remain cautious and have lowered our projections for 1999." Almost all market segments are suffering this year. The microprocessor market, which averaged 28.2% growth over the past two years, is only projected to grow at 1.7% in 1998, to $23.9 billion. But it will turn around to reach $27.1 billion, increasing by 13.7% in 1999, according to IDC. However, any strong recovery doesn't portend a long-term growth trend, the researcher cautioned. As equipment markets converge and more functions are integrated into systems-on-a-chip, the market will slow somewhat. IDC's projected compound annual growth rate for 1998-2003 is expected to be 13.2%.

To: Carl Held who wrote (40411)	10/28/1998 12:37:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Actually Carl a lot of things have changed in the last several weeks. A significant number of older fabs have either been shut down or converted to other products. Computer sales have been stronger than anticipated. Selling prices have remained flat to rising. MU yields at .21 are rising, and more wafer starts are at .21 micron. Memory shortages are now projected for 2000. Each of these on its own is significant, together they represent a dramatic change in the picture for MU. IF MU can handle the TI acquisition without a disaster (a big if in my opinion), then they and Samsung will dominate the memory business going forwards. If the projected memory shortages do arrive, prices will be stable and falling costs will make MU hugely profitable, and the stock price will be much higher than it is today. On the other hand, if MU falls on its face in the TI acquisition, or a worldwide depression slashes memory demand, MU could end up back at 20. The quick answer is, yes things have changed dramatically. This is not a case of manipulation. Furthermore, things will continue to change dramatically in the future, and the price of MU will continue to reflect these developments. Stay tuned...... Carl R.