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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Linder who wrote (6099)	10/27/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

Kevin Linder; Maybe your right that sentiment about the DD industry is about to change. I certainly hope so, given my stock position. However, this specialist has shown that he can drop this stock almost straight down anytime he wants to. He can drop it 10 pts. in a few days and has done so before. I consider a few days short term. It will take the analysts several months to change their opinions and become bullish. In a few days he can be devastating and force panic selling which is capitulation. I haven't seen capitulation yet in this stock. Capitulation begins by dropping the stock low enough to force the margin accounts to sell and then becomes a general selling melee. At 12-14 that would happen. The specialist would be there to cover his shorts and scoop up the stock shaken loose with his profits. Fortunately, I now have an early warning system available to me on the internet which I never had before. With this system its almost like having a videotape of what he is doing every 5 minutes. Its marvelous. However, I think we are talking here at cross purposes. You are talking about Seagate's fundamentals and I am talking about the specialist's near term intentions. About fundamentals you get no disagreement from me. However, there is a big chance to get badly mauled while waiting for sentiment to change. My post last night was addressed to traders. If you are long term holder of the stock pay no attention to me or use it as a buying opportunity. The fact that the specialist is shorting can't be ignored. He has good reason to do it from his point of view. The stock market, on a daily basis, is zero sum game. When someone makes a profit someone else balances the books by taking a loss. New money is not created only a redistribution of wealth through profit and loss. The specialist understands this and that is why he wants to make sure the redistribution goes into his pocket, not yours. There are no free lunches on Wall St.. Not for him, not for us. PHOTOMAN/William Epstein