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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (11602)	10/27/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: Bill McCullen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

JP Nice reply. What set me off on your other post was your split = fourfold gain comment. I am not opposed to investing in high PE stocks that have proven growth track records or unusual circumstances (i.e. MSFT is a monopoly for now and the foreseeable future that has $10+ billion cash on hand so maybe it is worth 60 times earnings). My largest holdings are LU, EMC and CSCO so I do OK. But at some point, AOL, YHOO, ebay etc. are going to stumble and someone will be left holding the bag and it won't be me. The risk/reward for these stocks is very high. Interesting you cited LTCM since that fund generated outsized returns for several years when all was good then crumbled when things went sour. Why, because they generated outsized returns with an extroardinarily risky model. Their risk adjusted returns probably wouldn't have matched a portfolio of utilities let alone the S&P. I think the same might be said for many of the Internet stocks. Also, I don't short and I'll admit I missed the boat on Dell and still feel it is very over-valued. I will make a note to check back in 6 months, it will be fun to see where AOL is (split adjusted of course). Regards, Bill

To: J. P. who wrote (11602)	10/27/1998 11:07:00 PM
From: put2rich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

J.P. Not following AOL recently but if you or any can give a strong prediction that AOL can double the profit to say 52 cents a quarter within the next 2-3 quarter period. If it is very likely then the stock is cheap otherwise... Thanks