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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (25788)	10/27/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Chuck Williams	Respond to of 70976

Huh? Me thinks AMAT will go down with the market due to China (Asia) and Brazilian (Latin American) concerns. Throw in a slowing Europe (evidenced by them lowering rates) and we got the makin's for another roller coaster ride. Did enjoy your colorful analysis though. I think I see a 2nd derivative, descending spike offset by a burgeoning mushroom pattern, but I may be wrong...

To: Gary Burton who wrote (25788)	10/27/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: Robert O	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

No offense because I know there are a lot of TA guys here, but man one has to go a long way to make randomness (since all news is new by definition) appear orchestrated. Although I'm NOT saying just because it's complicated it's not possibly the "answer"... but what's that theory called that says the most obvious answer is usually correct, or at least a real good place to start? RO P.s. I'll believe anything if I think it might make me money (seriously). To that end, has there ever been a verifiable, monitored, testable TA theory in action that has produced above average results over the longish haul? For example some say the so-called "Dogs of the Dow" approach advanced by O'Higgins is a repeatable model that results in above market-average results year after year.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (25788)	10/28/1998 1:51:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

gary: re: "the longer term trend is indecisive. If AMAT can hold above 28.13 and then turn around and print 35 or higher, then it will count as 5 waves up from the Oct low of 21.56 and signal the beginning of a new bull market. (Once it touches 35 if it does that, st. traders should sell for a retrace back to high 20's but longer term the trend will have changed to UP)----If, however, AMAT keeps dropping as it has in the last 2 days and prints below 28.13, then the odds are high that that all we would have done is a D wave in a descending triangle ( a downsloping wedge)which started from the 54.19 top with a need to do an E wave down to complete the entire move--it being at least a 50% chance of a slight new low in the process.-----The triangle alternative shows the A wave down from 54 to 25.50 in Dec97 then a B up to 39.61 in May98 followed by a C wave down to 21.56 in early Oct perhaps followed by a D wave up to 34.98 a few days ago and then followed by a final E wave down towards and perhaps a bit below the C wave low of 21.56.------If however, AMAT holds above 28.13 and then prints 35.00, it will have traced out 5 waves up rather than the usual 3 one sees in triangles and this will negate the idea of the triangle." You're saying: The stock will either (you're not sure): 1. go up, in which case it will keep going up until it goes down, or 2. go down, in which case it will keep going down until it goes up. Or maybe this is just too complicated for a barefoot neophyte to understand.