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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2816)	10/28/1998 12:49:00 AM
From: Tom Murphy	Respond to of 3696

MrGreenJeans....I understand your position. I have no opinion on whether the new products will be accepted by the industry and result in future revenues and profit. I am short on UTEK only because I believe they will not see any real revenue from the new products until the second half of 99. I think the sector still has some pain to endure the next 6 months. My bet is a lot of investors will not be able to wait that long. Hence, I anticipate some short term weakness in the price (I really can't see a reason for it to rise at the moment). Just my opinion. I hope we both make money (me first of course, but the day after I cover...I hope the price doubles for you).

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (2816)	10/28/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Nevada	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3696

I agree- except that there could be information in the inventory. 1) Is the reason for the high inventory- bad management, isolated bad decisions or occurrences over which management had no control? (Obviously would be a combination of some sort). Now if it is mainly reason #1 then what makes us think that management will act any better in the future? 2) I am bothered that the inventory has not been written down yet if it is indeed comprised of a lot of obsolete goods. (Of course it is possible that it is all raw material that can still be used. A real long shot that one though). I tend to play the short side and have found my best ally is a management which is either incompetent or unscrupulous. Possible delay of write-downs might point one of these ways (esp with management owning - what was the number 30% of the stock?) I am certainly not ready to make any conclusions here- just raising questions. Also any insights as to competence of management would be appreciated. Obviously some good points as to new products have been raised. I am trying to get a handle on possible profit potential of these products. Can we get a realistic estimate on the markets for the new products and will the profits in those markets be as quickly squeezed as have UTEKs other markets? Could use some real help there. I have not added to my short position, but neither have I covered it. Still open to the logic of the right proselytizer. Nevada