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To: upanddown who wrote (31206)	10/27/1998 10:47:00 PM
From: Fredman	Respond to of 95453

John, i don't interpret Slider as being bearish so much as being 'not so bullish' (? does that make any sense ?). Like him, i have no idea why things took off so much the last 4+ working days other than the fact these are undervalued stocks: something was 40, goes down to 8, up to 13, down to 9, and back up to 13, and then down a bit today: is that good or bad ?? Bad i guess if everybody is trying to buy at the absolute BOTTOM. But wouldn't buying in LONG in the 12-13 range be such a bad move ? It just seems nobody has any patience anymore......... And i am among one of those trying to develop some kind of patience. No, we are ALL watching this yo-yo ride, and trying to guess when the next best time will be to get back in.

To: upanddown who wrote (31206)	10/27/1998 11:57:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John; I'm not ''Bearish'' - Pigs get Fat - but, ''HOGS" get slaughtered... I have exited substantially, holding maybe just 35% of the level of Oilpatch Stocks from a week ago. One reason I left, was I saw a chance to catch the Savings & Loan small caps at a bottom - coming directly off of a major Oilpatch ''pop''. I am hoping to ''double-dip'' in essence here. I'm expecting the S&L's to ramp allmost to the degree that the oilpatch has ( room for 30-50% moves ); off of another Fed cut in November. Also, I moved into more E&P stocks that are the ultra-laggards in the Oilpatch - they give me even more ''leveraging'' to the ultimate moves in Crude or Natural Gas price movements. I did miss a substantial final move to a top here; allthough VTS which I had a very aggressive over-weighting to - did very,very well and I took profits off the table at $18+. VRC was unreal... I also missed the final spike on this, other than keeping a little longterm - not in the trading portfolio... This was just much, much more than I expected this soon; given the price of crude, earnings and dayrates... Perhaps it is a lesson on what can happen in a heavilly shorted & oversold sector that has a recent track record of such strong price swings in short periods of time. When the Mo-mo train starts moving - everyone jumps on at once and it ''feeds'' on itself... I just was NOT going to give up my trading profits again; ala - the early October selloff after the substantial September ''pop''... better safe than sorry - I'll take 30% knowing they can't take it from me, versus riding the Mo-mo train another 15-20% when the fundamentals just don't support a continued trend... I would NEVER have sold if Crude Oil was $16+ and dayrates, earnings etc. were improving. However - no one should get confused here; There will NOT be many ''cheap'' Oilpatch stocks when dayrates & earnings are great and with $18 crude ! So one has to buy ahead of the curve to some degree, but one also has to get ''out'' ahead of the curve - to ''count'' the profits; you don't have one - untill you sell ! good luck