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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)	10/28/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Respond to of 152472

Should we all send the Lehman guy a new calculator ? Jon. (Also, thanks for the info.)

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)	10/28/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Webster	Respond to of 152472

Greg, thanks for your input on Tim Luke and Lehman estimates. I can't help but wonder what other factors drive these smart people. His credibility is in question, and to think Tim is supposed to be one of the bright guys. Thanks Web.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)	10/28/1998 11:03:00 AM
From: Harvey Rosenkrantz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Thanks very much for the information and education. I agree with you that over time Tim Luke has been very perspicatious about QCOM and usually on target. However, I would postulate that as long as infrastructure sales were above manufacturing break even, handsets will remain capacity constrained, royalties and ASICs will skyrocket with all the new systems and phone manufacturers coming on stream, not to mention growing revenues at Omnitracs (now blessed with a new name) because of expanding the scope of that business. I can't be as elegant as you are quantifying all these effects, but unless there is a recrudescence of a severe economic crisis or a terrible blow on the IPR front, I would wager that Tim's original estimate proves conservative.

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)	10/28/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 152472

Gregg: Thanks. The puzzlement is the concentration on infrastructure which is the weakest leg to date of the Q. Puzzled re that. Since ASIC's and fees (of many flavors) are the core of the Q's business, why would a savy analyst zero in on infrastructure? Who knows what the phone handset sales and earnings will be, but will they be weak? Seems a bit unlikely, no? Especially with data access coming on strong. Curious re the timing. Could the fine, objective, well regarded Lehman be quietly telling a few folks - buy now while we have hit - I hope not. Chaz

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (17309)	10/29/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Gregg, I jokingly declared you the winner over Tim Luke yesterday but in fact after thinking about it I think that your response sidestepped the crux of his concerns,at least as you characterized them. He seems to be afraid that revenues will slip because of the global debt squeeze.Obviously,if this were to happen, operating margins would not have to fall in order to reduce projected earnings.So the real question is what percentage of the 4bil manufacturing operation revenues are already baked into the cake? FWIW, it would seem to me that most of firms behind these infrastructure contracts, ie GE and AIG along with Mexican partners, G*, won't have any trouble meeting their obligations, and that in fact the inability of competitors to come up with the dough to build out competing systems will encourage these capital rich operations to move ahead as fast as possible in order to secure mkt share. DaveMG