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Non-Tech : Image Entertainment (DISK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Fraser who wrote (222)10/28/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: William T. Katz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 379
 
The shorts are really vociferous over on Yahoo! thread. I was posting there today, but am not going to waste any more time there. There is no alias checking so one person can have any number of aliases and use them to taunt/insult you.

One of the shorts posted that DISK had -4.50/share of cash flow in FY98 which is a complete fabrication, but of course none of them are willing to describe how they arrived at that. They were also trying to make us believe that net income is totally unrelated to cash flow. I hope they get hurt real bad and I'll be laughing all the way to the bank.

RE: Nov 98 date. It's in the SEC filing for secondary offering. With that large of a short position, I'd imagine there is also some pressure to increase the short position just to keep the stock down. If the market doesn't help them, i.e. if small caps continue to rally, and especially if some news comes out, they are in big trouble. Volume is so light and shares are being moved into fairly strong hands.

This stock will be a good short squeeze. The shorts are saying that nobody wants to buy old movies or that nobody wants DVD. I think they are dead wrong on both counts but its nice if they throw their money into short positions.

As of last quarter (Jun 98 ending) there are approximately 13.5 million shares. With the offering, that will be raised to, what, 16 million? But here are the pros:

1) DVD is ramping up
2) DVD market will be much much bigger than laserdisc
3) DISK is getting exclusive titles, although they might not be blockbusters. However, the specialty Collector's editions (THX-certified, Criterion, etc) should be a good deal.
4) Internet direct sales should allow good servicing of laserdisc clients and increased DVD profits for DISK.

The big thing here is the size of DVD markets. Even if DISK doesn't capitalize, I think the public will get hit with DVD mania pretty soon. When that happens, there will be a lot of investors looking for DVD plays.

The big "cons" for DISK is financing and exclusive DVD licensing. I like the reward/risk.